LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- I cannot help you win your office pool.
But I can help you avoid a few mistakes and I can point out several issues I have with the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s 2022 bracket.
And I can tell you that after living through a COVID-canceled tournament in 2020 and a 2021 tournament that did not include any local representatives that I had a wonderful time writing 10 Things I Think I Know About The 2022 NCAA Tournament.
1. The last time one-and-done college basketball was played, we tried to explain an NCAA Final Four with four teams based West of the Mississippi River.
One-and-done basketball resumes this week. Take a look at the top four seeds for the 2022 men’s NCAA Tournament.
All four — Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Baylor — are all parked West of the Mississippi River.
If the Atlantic Coast, Big Ten and Southeastern conferences are serious about confirming their Mr. Big Stuff status in college basketball, I’d recommend they deliver something to talk about over the next three weeks, especially this week.
2. No league deserves more scrutiny than the Big Ten. Few of today’s players were born the last time a Big Ten team — Michigan State, 2000 — won an NCAA title.
A year ago, the Big Ten put nine teams in the field and one made the Elite Eight. Tom Izzo’s league was absent from the Final Four. Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State and Iowa were all seeded fourth or higher in their regionals and failed to survive the first weekend.
That was blush-worthy.
Well, the Big Ten put nine more teams in the 2022 field Sunday. That’s 50% more than the six bids earned by the Big 12, SEC or Big East.
I’ll be watching. Anything less than three teams in the Sweet Sixteen will be embarrassing.
3. I know your team got a terrible draw. Somebody at NCAA headquarters doesn’t like your coach, your athletic director, your fan base.
But if I can make a case for a team that deserves to howl at the Tournament Selection Committee, I’d select Rick Barnes and Tennessee.
The Vols finished tied with Kentucky for second place in the SEC. They beat the Wildcats two of three. They won the SEC Tournament. They’re ranked No. 7 in the NCAA Net formula, No. 7 by Ken Pomeroy’s formula and No. 7 in Jeff Sagarin’s predictor formula. Those are 2-seed credentials.
Yet, they’re the No. 3 seed in the Midwest Regional and the Vols are looking at rematch games with Villanova, the 2-seed, and Arizona, the top seed, to get the Final Four. That’s right. Tennessee has already played Villanova and Arizona this season.
Brutal.
4. I understand nobody in this area likes Duke and Mike Krzyzewski.
I realize it’s trendy to doubt the Blue Devils because they lost their home finale to North Carolina as well as the ACC Tournament final to Virginia Tech.
News flash: When Coach K won his first national title in 1991, the Blue Devils lost the ACC Tournament final to North Carolina by 22 points.
Duke's Mike Krzyzewski during his team's 74-65 win over Louisville on Jan. 29, 2022.
His last NCAA title team in 2015 lost to Notre Dame by eight in the ACC Tournament semifinals.
Losing in the ACC Tournament is mostly insignificant.
Duke has at least three and perhaps four first-round draft picks. Duke has already beaten Gonzaga on a neutral court.
Discount Duke at your own peril.
5. I’ve heard some squawks from Hoosier Nation about Indiana’s status as a 12-seed, which pushed IU into a First Four game against Wyoming Tuesday night in Dayton.
As I mentioned earlier, every team can find reasons to squawk. But Wyoming, Indiana, Notre Dame and Rutgers have all been saddled with a competitive disadvantage.
The winner of the IU-Wyoming game will finish its media responsibilities after midnight Tuesday and then fly all night before playing in Portland on Thursday.
Ditto for the Rutgers-Notre Dame winner, which will depart Dayton after midnight Wednesday and play in San Diego on Friday. That’s a major ask, especially for Wyoming, which had to fly from Cheyenne to Dayton on Monday.
Teams booked for Dayton should have been booked for their next game in Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Greenville or Buffalo. No legitimate reason not to do that.
6. Kansas was blessed with the best draw of the four top seeds. It isn’t close.
No. 2 seed Auburn has lost four of its last nine and needed overtime to beat Mississippi State.
Kansas guard Remy Martin (11) is pressured by Kentucky guard Sahvir Wheeler (2) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Jan. 29, 2022, in Lawrence, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
No. 3 seed Wisconsin is ranked No. 24 (6 seed) in the NCAA Net formula, No. 34 (9 seed) by Pomeroy and No. 27 (7 seed) in Sagarin predictor. The Badgers won a dozen games by five points on less, earning the designation at the ninth-luckiest team in the nation by Pomeroy.
No. 4 seed Providence is ranked No. 32 (8 seed) by NCAA Net, No. 49 (13 seed) by Pomeroy and No. 36 (9 seed) by Sagarin. Oh, and Providence ranks first in Pomeroy’s luck factor.
No excuses for an early flop this time, Jayhawks.
7. Who are Pomeroy’s unluckiest teams among the legit contenders to win a game or two?
Mike Young’s Virginia Tech team ranks No. 302 in the luck metric, second-worst among the 68 teams still playing. Sizzling Iowa is No. 295, third among active teams. (Reminder that in 10 NCAA Tournament appearances at three schools, Iowa coach Fran McCaffery has never advanced to the Sweet Sixteen.)
Among serious national title contenders, Gonzaga ranks No. 268 in luck, which means the Zags haven’t had a bunch.
8. More than a few office pool sharpies believe that a team must rank in the top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency to win the national title.
Who are the dual qualifiers this season? In Ken Pomeroy’s metrics there are five teams:
- Gonzaga — No. 1 in offense, No. 7 in defense
- Arizona — No. 5 in offense, No. 20 in defense
- Baylor — No. 9 in offense, No. 14 in defense
- Houston — No. 10 in offense, No. 11 in defense
- UCLA — No. 15 in offense, No. 12 in defense
9. The obvious follow-up question is: Who are the top four seeds that have offensive or defensive efficiency numbers that look like a red flag?
Duke’s defense is worth a question or two. The Blue Devils rank No. 44.
But if that concerns you, it should terrify you about Purdue. Matt Painter’s team ranks No. 100 in defensive efficiency.
For Tennessee, it’s offense. The Vols rank No. 36 in that category, which makes it mandatory for Barnes’ team to maintain its status as the third-most efficient defense.
Texas Tech — like Tennessee, a 3-seed — is more offensively challenged, at No. 65. Wisconsin, another 3-seed, is outside the top 35 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
Arkansas, a 4-seed, sits at No. 40 in offensive efficiency. And, I’m not trying to pick on Providence, but the 4-seed Friars rank 31st on offense and 79th on defense.
I do not have Providence in my Sweet Sixteen.
10. So ... who am I picking?
Kansas in the Midwest because the Jayhawks live on Easy Street.
Arizona in the South because Tennessee and Villanova have to play each other before getting to the Wildcats — and Arizona was clearly the best team in the Pac-12.
Kentucky in the East because of my concerns about Purdue’s defense and Baylor’s front-court injuries.
Duke in the West because the Blue Devils have those future pros and have already beaten Gonzaga.
And who doesn’t want to see one last Kentucky vs. Krzyzewski game in the Final Four?
Give me Duke and Arizona in the title game, with Tommy Lloyd and Arizona denying Coach K his John Wooden walkaway with a ring ending.
You have been warned.
Related Stories:
- Make your 2022 NCAA Tournament picks with our printable bracket
- CRAWFORD | Kentucky earns No. 2 seed, first-round matchup vs. Saint Peter's in NCAA East Region
- Woodson calls Indiana's First Four NCAA matchup with Wyoming a 'beautiful thing'
Copyright 2022 WDRB media. All Rights Reserved.
