BOZICH | 6 teams that can win the men's NCAA basketball title | Sports

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- I once famously picked Jim Valvano and North Carolina State to upset Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler and Houston to win the 1983 NCAA Championship.

NC State 54, Houston 52.

Informed sources confirm that in the aftermath of the Wolfpack's legendary takedown of Phi Slama Jama, Dr. Bo has blown 1,311 consecutive selections on his NCAA Tournament brackets over the last 40-plus seasons.

I persist, undaunted by the reality that my Aunt Toots is more likely to win her office pool by picking her favorite colors and mascots.

But if you're not the kind of person inclined to pick Akron because Zips is a terrific nickname, I narrowed the list of teams that will win the 2024 national title in Phoenix on April 8 to six programs — and by the end the column, I might cut the list to five.

Expect nothing outrageous.

I'm talking about three No. 1 seeds, one 2-seed and a pair of 4-seeds.

Actually, this is outrageous considering I'm scratching one of the top seeds — ACC regular-season champion North Carolina — and including a pair of 4-seeds while rejecting seven of the eight teams the committed rewarded with No. 2 or 3 seeds.

But the numbers are the numbers. And, the record is the record.

The data from the last 24 NCAA champions at Ken Pomeroy's analytics website is clear and persistent. Teams capable of winning the six games required to lift the trophy should rank in the top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency.

Since 1999, the first season Pomeroy has the numbers on his superb analytics site, 22 of 24 NCAA winners were dual qualifiers.

The exceptions?

Scott Drew and Baylor scored three seasons ago with the No. 2 offense and No. 22 defense, a minor blip.

The team that cannot be explained is the 2014 UConn squad coached by Kevin Ollie and led by Shabazz Napier. That was the Huskies team that earned a 7-seed after Russ Smith and Louisville drilled UConn by 33 points in their regular-season finale and then backed it up with another 10-point win in the American Athletic Conference tournament final. UConn had a top-10 defense, but the Huskies were a complete outlier offensively ranking 39th in efficiency while making only 30% of their three-point shots.

One more splash of history: Having a top-10 offense has been a powerful predictor of success. Of the last 24 NCAA champions, 21 ranked in the top 10 in offensive efficiency at KenPom, while 14 champs ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency.

The offensive exceptions to the top 10 rule were the 2014 UConn squad, the 2011 Kemba Walker UConn team, which ranked 19th, and the 2003 Carmelo Anthony Syracuse team that ranked 17th.

Everybody else was in the top nine, with 16 of 24 champs actually in the top four.

Enough history. Time to reveal the Super Six (in order).

1. Connecticut

Defending national champs. Multiple NBA first-round picks. Big East regular-season and tournament champs.

Some will knock Danny Hurley's team because the Big East only placed three teams in the field. The East is also a tough regional, with Iowa State the No. 2 and SEC Tournament champion Auburn the 4-seed.

But the Huskies rank first in offensive efficiency and 11th on defense. You can bet against them. I'm not.

2. Auburn

What? A four-seed?

Don't blame me. Blame the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. They undervalued the Tigers, who won by double figures in 26 of their 27 victories. Bruce Pearl's squad won the SEC Tournament.

Yes, the Tigers also lost seven games, including one to Appalachian State. Kentucky and Florida beat Auburn by double figures.

But Auburn is a darling of the metrics, ranking 10th in offensive efficiency and fourth on defense. Beware.

3. Houston

Kelvin Sampson did not blink while transitioning the Cougars from the AAC to the regular-season champs of the Big 12. Houston earned solid non-conference wins over Dayton and Texas A&M and finished two games ahead of Iowa State in the regular season race.

The Cougars are battling injuries and lost by 28 points to Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament final

Houston is elite defensively, ranking No. 2, and a dual qualifier offensively at No. 17.

4. Arizona

The Wildcats are not the top seed in the West Regional. North Carolina is.

North Carolina, with a ranking of No. 24 in offensive efficiency and No. 6 on the defensive end of the floor, is just outside the cut. I left them off my list because the results tilt dramatically toward a top-10 offense.

Arizona, regular-season champs of the Pac-12, has better credentials. The Wildcats rank No. 8 on offense and 12 on defense.

5. Purdue

Technically, the Boilermakers are not a qualifier because they will begin their NCAA run Friday in Indianapolis with the No. 21 defense.

That's close enough, especially considering Matt Painter's team ranks fourth in offensive efficiency behind UConn, Alabama and Illinois.

6. Duke

Sorry, but I had to include the Blue Devils. Like Purdue, Duke does not meet both standards. But their offense (No. 7) has shown enough octane that I'm not ready to discount their No. 26 defense.

Yes, 26th is a flashing light. But there are more reasons to discount three other elite offenses: Alabama (No. 2), Illinois (No. 3) and Kentucky (No. 5).

As good as those three are on offense, you have to be a true believer (like Dick Vitale) to pick one of them to win it all, because the Crimson Tide are No. 112 on defense, Illinois is 93rd and Kentucky is 108th.

As I wrote last week, only two of the last 96 teams to make the Final Four advanced that far in the tournament with a defense that ranked No. 99 or worse: Miami last season and Marquette in 2003.

Maybe, like Vitale predicted, Kentucky and it thunderous offense will be the exception. But the numbers disagree.

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