LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – When it comes to college basketball and the NCAA Tournament, the University of Kentucky men’s basketball program is about making history, not bucking it.
Yet the Wildcats, who received the No. 3 seed in the South Regional in Sunday’s 2024 NCAA Tournament draw, find themselves up against some uncomfortable history heading into the big dance this season. They will face Horizon League Tournament champion Oakland (23-11).
No team since 1983 has won the tournament after losing its conference tournament opener, as Kentucky did to Texas A&M on Friday. And only one program in the past two decades has made it to the Final Four with a defensive ranking outside the Top 100. Kentucky sits at No. 108. (Take some heart. The one team to do it, a Marquette team led by Dwyane Wade, was No. 109.)
Forget the recent momentum of a five-game winning streak to end the regular season, a run of impressive wins that included double-digit drubbings of both Tennessee and Alabama, the Wildcats’ fortunes this March (and April) will come down to their ability to get stops, and play solid enough defense to support one of the most potent offenses John Calipari has ever put on a court.
John Calipari shouts in Kentucky’s SEC Tournament loss to Texas A&M.
The Wildcats will face Oakland in the first round matchup on Thursday (time not yet announced), with a Saturday matchup against N.C. State or Texas Tech looming if they win. And “if” has not been a foregone conclusion lately. The Wildcats lost in the first round in 2022, and have not made it out of the first weekend since 2019.
Still, Calipari has confidence in his young team.
“We’ve got some stuff to figure out,” Calipari said after his team lost to Texas A&M, 97-87, in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. But this is an unbelievable group that I'm coaching. All I told them is they’ve got to stick together now. We've been on a run. It's all been fun, you win, then all of a sudden you get dinged and now the real stuff starts next week. We’ve got to be in the right frame of mind. . . . We have shown that we can guard the best teams in the country. We have shown that you can score a hundred on us. We’ve just got to lock in and know we've got to get better defensively.”
Kentucky has just three players who were on last season’s team that lost to Kansas State in the round of 32 – Ugonna Onyenso and Adou Theiro, who played little, and senior All-American candidate Antonio Reeves.
The rebuilt Wildcats have proven they can beat some of the best teams in the country, having beaten North Carolina 87-83 on a neutral court, handling Auburn fairly easily, 70-59, on the road, and winning at Tennessee 85-81. At home, the Wildcats beat Alabama 117-95. But Kentucky also took four losses in seven games early in its SEC season and lost to Gonzaga, 89-85, in Rupp Arena on Feb. 10.
Kentucky is one of the better shot-blocking teams in the country, according to analytics, and is Top Five in the nation in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage (57.4, 4th) and percentage points scored from beyond the arc (41.2, 1st).
They have the depth for a March run and the raw talent, with NBA prospects abounding.
But defense has been a potentially fatal flaw.
“I'm excited about going into this tournament. I am,” Calipari said. “When you can score the ball, you’ve got a chance. Now, come on, let's just guard a little bit. And we did it at Tennessee. Tennessee is one of the best teams in the country. We did it at Auburn. Alabama in the end. So we can do it. It's are you locked into that more than anything else?”
This has been a popular team as Calipari has had in the past decade. It is full of very talented players who are young and charismatic. They are fun to watch, and play one of the fastest tempos in the nation. Reed Sheppard, a native of London, Ky., is a projected NBA lottery pick, the son of a former UK star (and national champion) and one of the best freshmen in the country.
The Kentucky fan base wants this team to win so badly it can taste the champagne in Phoenix. Whether the team can live up to those lofty hopes depends on six nights of defense over the next three weeks.
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