LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — The betting numbers at DraftKings suggest two Atlantic Coast Conference teams are in prime position to make the inaugural 12-team national college football playoff this season.
The first would be No. 8 Miami, which is seventh in the DraftKings future book at +1,800. The second is No. 15 Clemson, which is 10th at +3,500.
There are many reasons for that, but I will focus on this one:
Clemson and Miami will not play this season — unless they meet in the ACC championship game.
Using the current Associated Press rankings, Clemson has one remaining game against a ranked opponent. Ditto for Miami.
And that ranked team is the same team — Jeff Brohm’s University of Louisville Cardinals’ squad.
The schedule favors the Tigers (who get the Cards at home) and then the Hurricanes (who come to L&N Cardinal Stadium).
And guess what? SMU does not play Clemson nor Miami. Louisville is the last currently ranked team in the Associated Press poll on the Mustangs’ schedule.
Considering Louisville must get through the league’s two best teams, a home loss against SMU Saturday would be extremely difficult for the Cards to overcome if they expect to return to the ACC championship game in December.
On to my ACC rankings:
1. Clemson (3-1. 2-0) — Clemson-Florida State was once a lock consideration as the ACC Game of the Year. This year it’s not even the game of the week. SMU at Louisville is a sexier matchup, thanks to the epic meltdown by the Seminoles over five games.
But I like Dabo Swinney’s team over Miami because Clemson has bounced back from its debacle against Georgia to win three straight by an average of 32 points. And they’ve won them without the assistance of an official’s review.
2. Miami (5-0, 1-0) — Here are questions I must ask:
What if the game the Hurricanes pulled out against Virginia Tech last Friday had been played in Blacksburg, not Miami?
What if the opponent had been Clemson or Florida State, a program with more national clout?
Would the Hail Mary touchdown catch by the Hokies on the final play of the game have been reversed after a lengthy review?
Mario Cristobal’s unbeaten squad won its first close test of the season but there are people who swear the Hokies got a terrible reversal. Now Miami heads to California for a game Saturday night. The Canes lead the ACC in total offense, total defense and beneficial reversed calls.
3. Louisville (3-1, 1-0) — With Miami and Clemson ahead on the schedule, this is a mammoth game for the Cardinals if they intend to compete for a place in the ACC title game.
As a first-year ACC team, the Mustangs got the memo that they need to prove they belong — and they thoroughly enjoyed pummeling Florida State, 42-16, last weekend. SMU has the ACC’s second-best rushing offense — and rushing defense. You have been warned.
4. SMU (4-1, 1-0) —Halfback Brashard Smith averages better than 7 yards per carry, scoring better than one touchdown per game. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has completed better than 71% of his throws with five touchdowns and no interceptions in wins over TCU and Florida State. The Mustangs will come to L&N Cardinal Stadium trying to prove they belong in the Top 25.
5. Boston College (4-1, 1-0) — Las Vegas still does not believe in the job Bill O’Brien is doing with the Eagles. Despite wins over Florida State and Michigan State, BC is a one-point underdog at Virginia Saturday. Apparently that one-point BC win against Western Kentucky spooked the wise guys.
6. Duke (5-0, 1-0) — Honk if you knew the Blue Devils were unbeaten. Honk a second time if you can name the coach who replaced Mike Elko. (It’s Manny Diaz). It appears that the Blue Devils have not been 6-0 since 1994, the first year of the Fred Goldsmith Era. Cooper Flagg will have to remain in the shadows if the Blue Devils score at Georgia Tech Saturday night.
7. Syracuse (3-1, 1-1) — The Orange have built their record on a schedule that Jeff Sagarin ranks as the second-easiest in the ACC — four home games that included a loss to Stanford. Fun City is over. The Orange visit No. 25 UNLV Friday night.
8. Pittsburgh (4-0, 0-0) — Pitt is the only team to play a softer schedule than Syracuse, according to Sagarin. That’s puzzling because the Panthers would be 2-0 in the Big 12 after beating Cincinnati and West Virginia. The Panthers have a perfect partner to play coming off a bye week: They visit hapless North Carolina.
9. Virginia (3-1, 1-0) — What’s going on in Charlottesville? The Cavaliers have already won three games in a season when the over/under for their predicted win total was 4.5. As I noted earlier, they’re a slight home favorite against BC Saturday because of an offense that has averaged better than 455 yards per game. Pay attention to the BC/UVa game. The Cards visit Charlottesville next week.
10. Georgia Tech (3-2, 1-2) — The Yellow Jackets are a 9-point favorite over Duke so Vegas would reverse the order of those two teams in these rankings. Except Tech’s best win was by three over Florida State, which isn’t anything to brag about this season. And Tech’s defense is the only one in the league without an interception.
11. California (3-1, 0-1) — The good? The Bears won at Auburn, pushing Hugh Freeze closer to the hot seat. The bad? The Bears are the only team to lose to Florida State. If Cal wants people to pay attention, the Bears need to upset Miami as a 10 1/2-point home underdog.
12. Virginia Tech (2-3, 0-1) — The Hokies have lost three games by a total of 14 points and head to Stanford this weekend as 8 1/2 point favorites. They had Miami down but could not complete the knockout. But they’re only out-gaining opponents by 8 yards per game.
13. Stanford (2-2, 1-1) —The Cardinal were no match for Clemson last week, and Stanford has managed two rushing touchdowns in four games. Ouch.
14. North Carolina State (3-2, 0-1) — The Wolfpack have established a win-lose pattern over five games but the losses have been ugly to teams (Tennessee and Clemson) that could be headed to the 12-team playoff. With the next three against Wake Forest, Syracuse and California, Dave Doeren’s team is positioned to get on a roll.
15. Wake Forest (1-3, 0-1) — Losing a home game to Virginia was bad. Losing one to Ole Miss was unavoidable. Losing one to Louisiana-Lafayette was a sign the Demon Deacons will be left at home on Bowl Selection Sunday.
16. Florida State (1-4, 1-3) — Last in the league in total offense. Last in the league in touchdowns. Last in the league in rushing (65 yards per game). Last in the league in turnover margin. Heard enough?
17. North Carolina (3-2, 0-1) — I realize that most of the numbers suggest Florida State deserves this spot over the Tar Heels. But Mack Brown’s team earned extra credit for allowing 70 points to Appalachian State and then blowing a 20-0 lead in the final 21 minutes of their game at Duke last weekend. The losing mentality has settled in over Chapel Hill.
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