LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- I have to be honest: I had serious concerns I could convince you to read past the headline.
But now that you've made it to the second paragraph, the pressure escalates to keep you here for all 765 words.
Considering the University of Louisville men's basketball team lost a game that I screamed they absolutely had to win at DePaul Saturday, you're probably wondering if this column was lifted from The Onion — or dated 04/01/23.
Considering the Cardinals are 4-5 and play their next two games at home against Arkansas State (Wednesday at 8 p.m.) and Pepperdine (Sunday at 2 p.m.), perhaps the headline should have been:
Can Louisville find its way to .500 (at any point) this season?
Nope.
I'm talking about the long game — the final record.
Can Kenny Payne and his coaching staff turn around the mojo and get the Cardinals to the neighborhood of 16-15?
I won't ask for a show of hands. There is no reason to ask for a show of hands. Nobody would consider raising one.
Not after the Cardinals lost to a 1-7 DePaul team that lost to San Francisco by 16 and Northern Illinois by 10.
A quick look at the analytics sites suggests harsh news will continue to dog the beleagured Cardinals.
Ken Pomeroy's power formula pegs Louisville with a final record of 10-21. The Cards are likely to be favored in three more games — Arkansas State, Pepperdine and Notre Dame, which visits Feb. 21.
Louisville coach Kenny Payne talks to his team during a timeout in a loss to Chattanooga on Nov. 10, 2023.
Bart Torvik's power formula pegs Louisville with a final record of (you guessed it) 10-21. His numbers favor Louisville in the same three games.
Erik Haslam has a different way of analyzing the situation— and it is less favorable for the Cardinals.
At Haslametrics, Louisville should be considered an underdog every game the rest of the season, starting Wednesday night when Haslam's numbers like Arkansas State by 1.68 points as well as Sunday with Pepperdine considered 2.48 points superior.
Ugh.
Twelve more wins?
Where could 12 more wins possibly be hiding?
Let's have fun with this. Considering the gloominess that has overwhelmed this program for years, what's the alternative? (Don't answer that. I'm well aware of one alternative many have suggested for weeks.)
So let's look for the 12 wins that can lift the Cards to a .500 season.
The first two are non-negotiable. Have to beat Arkansas State (3-7) and Pepperdine (5-7).
HAVE TO.
The Cardinals will not beat Kentucky. They will not win at Virginia.
WILL NOT.
They can, however, beat Pittsburgh. Yes, the Panthers are 7-3. Yes, they registered a road victory at West Virginia. But Pitt has yet to beat anybody with a Ken Pom rating better than 129. The Panthers are not an NCAA Tournament team.
Losing at Miami is the safe prediction for the Cards. But the Hurricanes did just take a 27-point beatdown from Colorado. They also looked quite inept against Kentucky.
I won't get carried away with the Miami game. Believe me, I know I'm quite carried away getting to this point in the column.
Win No. 4 needs to come against North Carolina State at home. The Wolfpack have stacked their 6-2 record against a bunch of nobodies.
Then comes five straight losses — at North Carolina, Wake Forest and Clemson at home against Duke and Virginia. KenPom has Louisville losing all of those games by at least 10 points. Torvik projects a deficit of at least eight in all of them.
That means Louisville will have to win 8 of its last 10 to get to 16-15 prior to the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament.
Wellllllll …
Welllllllllllll …
Welllllllllllllll … I taken this idea this far. I can't stop now, can I?
Six of those 10 are home games. Both Pomeroy and Torvik put the Cards' win probability in those half dozen games at 31% or higher.
That's not John Wooden against the world but it's the best available route for the Cardinals. Gotta win the six home games.
That leaves this: Two wins from these four road trips — Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, Duke.
Scratch Duke.
Syracuse does not have any Top 100 wins and the Orange have a first-year coach in Adrian Autry. That's one.
Boston College lost five ACC home games last season. Pitt lost two.
Go with BC.
Unless I see something from the Cardinals that I've yet to see in the first nine, that's the best plan that I've got.
But if they lose to Arkansas State on Wednesday night, let's forget we even had this conversation.
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