LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- This is merely the fifth time the Atlantic Coast Conference has asked its men's basketball teams to play 20 games to decide the regular-season championship.

Back in the days when Michael Jordan and Ralph Sampson ruled the Earth, the ACC was an eight-team operation that played a 14-game round robin schedule.

In 2015, when Louisville eased into the league to battle Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Tony Bennett, Jim Boeheim and the other barracudas, it was a 15-team scrum that Virginia won by going 16-2.

The 20-game requirement started in 2020, the year COVID-19 washed out the ACC and NCAA Tournaments. Florida State and Leonard Hamilton, the program that visits Louisville for the Cards' next game at noon Saturday, won the league with a 16-4 record.

This is how many programs have won 18 or more ACC games during the first four seasons of the 20-game conference grind:

None.

Not FSU in 2020.

Not Duke in 2022, which finished 16-4 with Paolo Banchero, Wendell Moore and Coach K.

Not Miami or Virginia in 2023, programs that shared the league title with 15 wins each.

And not North Carolina last season while winning 17 games while Hubert Davis was still a reasonably popular man in Chapel Hill.

By defeating Notre Dame on Sunday night in South Bend, Louisville improved to 13-2 in the league, tied with Clemson for second place, a game behind Cooper Flagg and Duke.

The Cards get four of their last five home. Winning out gets them to 18 ACC wins.

Ken Pomeroy's analytics site puts their win probability in those five games at 88% (FSU), 84% (Virginia Tech), 77% (Pittsburgh), 93% (Stanford) and 88% (California).

I have not taken a math class in several weeks, but that suggests the Cards' odds of winning all five games are roughly 45%. That's why KenPom has Louisville (and Clemson) going 17-3, finishing two games behind Duke.

Ditto for Bart Torvik, whose formula provides the same finish: Duke 19-1, Clemson and Louisville 17-3.

Could Duke stumble?

Possible, but I wouldn't rush to DraftKings about it. KenPom has the Blue Devils' win probability at 91% or higher in four of their five remaining ACC games.

A trip to Chapel Hill for a rivalry game with North Carolina on the last Saturday of the season registers as an 83% win probability. If you've watched the Tar Heels lose five of their last eight, you understand why Duke is likely to finish 19-1.

But remember, a 17-3 finish would tie the best performance by any ACC program over the previous four seasons. And 18 wins would be quite the talker.

Louisville defeated Notre Dame for its 20th win of the year.

The consensus among the current bracket forecasts is that Louisville will be a 7-seed March 16 when the 68-team NCAA Tournament field is announced.

A 7-seed opens against a 10-seed, generally a lower-level team from another power conference (Joe Lunardi of ESPN suggests West Virginia) and then gets a No. 2 seed in the second game.

There's a better chance that Pat Kelsey will cheer for St. Louis Cardinals or Chicago Cubs than talk what his team will be doing in another month.

"We never, ever, ever, talk about that, ever," Kelsey said Monday on the ACC coaches' weekly teleconference.

"I say all the time our sole focus is the most important thing in the history of our program, which is the next thing we do."

Point granted. But those rules do not apply on press row.

The Cards have taken advantage of a sagging ACC (Lunardi currently puts only Duke, Clemson and U of L in the NCAA field.) Considering the entire ACC took advantage of U of L the last two seasons, that's quite a statement.

Other than Georgia Tech, they have won all of the games they were supposed to win. But they'll need help and a win or two in the ACC Tournament to polish their NCAA Tournament resume.

There are no Quad 1 games left on the Cards' schedule. In fact, only the home game with Pitt would qualify as a Quad 2 victory. The other four games are all Quad 3 affairs. So the remaining schedule can hurt Kelsey's team more than it can help.

When the Cards get to Charlotte in three weeks for the ACC Tournament, they could get a rematch against Clemson and maybe another shot at Duke.

Who knew that when Louisville opened ACC play by hosting Duke on Dec. 8 the game would stand as one of the most meaningful games played in the league this season?

Kelsey's team does not figure to catch Duke in the ACC standings. But they're certainly tracking toward achieving something only one ACC program has achieved.

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