LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- The math is not encouraging if you're trying to project the chances of the Bellarmine University men's basketball team extending its season into next week by earning a spot in the ASUN Tournament.
My math skills are not as advanced as the analytical skills of Bellarmine seniors Garrett Tipton and Bash Wieland. Both have earned their undergraduate and masters business degrees at Bellarmine.
Three things must happen for the Knights to keep playing beyond Friday:
- Florida Gulf Coast must win at Jacksonville, in a game that tips at 7 p.m.
- North Alabama must win at Central Arkansas at 7:30 p.m.
- Bellarmine must win at Austin Peay at 8 p.m.
All three are Friday games, so the ASUN can finalize its tournament bracket later this evening.
According to the win probabilities posted at Ken Pomeroy's analytics, the likelihood of all three things happening is roughly 6.8%.
Nothing warm and fuzzy about that, right?
If you could pick two Division I players in America most likely to ignore unfavorable odds, Tipton and Wieland better be high on your list.
If you think 6.8% appears bleak, Tipton and Wieland have stared down odds of 0.00% the last four years.
That's what Bellarmine's chances of playing in the NCAA Tournament have been in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 as the Knight's transitioned from Division II national power to scrapping for recognition for coach Scott Davenport in the ASUN.
Did Tipton and Wieland enjoy the reality that they had no chance of participating in March Madness?
I'd never say that. But what I would say is they did not sulk, they did not stage a pity-party and they certainly did not run to the transfer portal.
Oh, and they practiced relentlessly while doing enough serious work in the class room to earn a pair of degrees, including coveted Bellarmine MBAs. Tipton even squeezed in 10-15 hours of work per week at ISCO Industries, a piping solutions supplier.
Tipton and Wieland grasped what the true value was of investing in the program that Davenport has built at Bellarmine.
It's more than the win over Louisville last season or the opportunities to compete against Duke, Notre Dame, UCLA, Gonzaga or Kentucky.
It's more than the Knights' surprising but captivating run to the ASUN Tournament two seasons ago that ended with an unforgettable court storm after Bellarmine defeated Jacksonville for the title.
It's the relationships they've forged and the friendships they've built. It's the shared experiences in the locker room, on the bus or in the team huddle. It's the challenge of achieving things skeptics said they could not achieve — including winning this game at Austin Peay.
"It's been six years, so I've been here a long time," said Tipton. "But it's the culture that's been built through teammates that has been the most exciting thing and the thing that I'm going to miss the most.
"There's nothing like a college basketball or college football locker room. That's the one thing you don't really get again once you get outside of it for good."
"I'm thankful that I've gotten a chance to be a part of something I never thought I'd get a chance to be a part of (competing in D1 basketball)," Wieland said.
"I've been to so many cool places that I don't think I would have ever visited if not for basketball."
This has not been the year that anybody at Bellarmine projected. Too many injuries to key players. Too much personal loss in the lives of players' families. A daunting schedule has the Knights' carrying an 8-22 record into their game in Clarksville, Tenn., Friday evening.
But Tipton and Wieland said the job of the seniors in the final game is the same one they accepted before the season.
It's not just scoring points or collecting rebounds, although Wieland leads the team at 14.2 points while adding 5.1 rebounds and Tipton contributes 9.8 points and 3.3 boards. It's well beyond the numbers or box score.
"I said this at the beginning of the year and I still stand true to it," Tipton said.
"The C.J. Flemings, the Dylan Penns, the Ethan Claycombs and a few people like myself laid the path to let these guys know what it's like to work really hard and win an ASUN championship.
"Now they're going to be able to get in (the NCAA Tournament). So if I was going to give them something throughout this path and transition that would help them as they enter this period of being able to get into the tournament, that was really all that mattered to myself and those guys as well."
"It's a very special place," Wieland said. "If you watched our practices this year you would never know that we were 8 and 22. These guys and coaches are amazing We're so together.
"I mean it sucks to lose but it doesn't change anything within our program. We still have each other's backs."
They will have each other's back at least one more time in this game against Austin Peay, a game that the analytics sites give Bellarmine roughly a 22% chance to win.
Perfect. Nobody thought the Knights would win the ASUN Tournament two years ago. Nobody thought the Knights was beat Louisville to begin the 2022-23 season.
It's not the winning that they will remember. It is the preparing to try to win they will remember.
"It's so easy to wrap your identity in something that is performance based," Wieland.
"When that is taken away from anybody, you've got to find a way to deal with it.
"I feel like I've had the right people surrounding me which has helped me get through it."
"I didn't really have any expectations when I got here and I think that was a good thing," Tipton said.
"I got to take it all in and enjoy it and that was a really great overall. I've got memories and friendships and things that I can look back and smile at for years to come.
"So yeah it's been everything that anybody could hope for and more."
For at least one more game Friday night in Clarksville, Tennessee.
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