LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — The questioners wanted to talk about Louisville’s 8-game winning streak and whether Monday would be the day the University of Louisville men’s basketball team would return to the Associated Press Top 25.
U of L coach Pat Kelsey wanted to talk about the game the Cardinals will play against SMU in Dallas Tuesday at 9 p.m.
The questioners wanted to ask about how Kelsey built his entire roster from scratch as well as the coach’s philosophy on offensive rebounding.
Kelsey wanted to talk SMU’s ability to win five of its seven Atlantic Coast Conference games for coach Andy Enfield, in his first season with the Mustangs after leaving USC.
So Monday morning on the weekly ACC coaches teleconference, Kelsey did what his point guard Chucky Hepburn would have done:
He took control.
He directed the conversation away from the Cards’ recent success and toward the challenge Louisville will face Tuesday.
“Nobody’s asked me about our game tomorrow and I’m going to tell you SMU is a very, very, very dangerous and talented team.
“I think as dangerous, as talented as any team in our entire conference. Andy’s done a phenomenal job.
“You asked me about building our team. I think what he’s done in building that team into a title contender in a very, very short amount of time is more impressive in my mind.”
The analytics agree.
And they also disagree.
A year ago, Louisville was No. 188 in Ken Pomeroy’s computer formula. On Monday the Cards were No. 29.
A year ago SMU was No. 45 in Ken Pom. On Monday the Mustangs were No. 39.
Kelsey had a bigger mess to fix. Much, much, much bigger.
But the metrics agree that SMU will clearly be the most difficult of the 12 remaining regular season games on the Louisville schedule.
Pomeroy has Louisville losing, 79-77, with a win probability of 43%. His formula has the Cards favored over their final 11 games, with win probabilities of 62% or greater in all of them.
A second formula, created by Bart Torvik, has Louisville losing to the Mustangs, 80-79, but then favored in the next 11 games, by at least four points in all of them.
A major difference between Louisville and SMU?
Strength of schedule.
Kelsey tested his team relentlessly prior to ACC play. Enfield did not. According to Pomeroy, Louisville’s non-league schedule ranks 38th most difficult and its overall schedule is No. 10.
SMU’s non-league schedule ranks No. 251 and overall only No. 115.
Out of the league, Louisville played Tennessee, Ole Miss, Indiana, West Virginia, Oklahoma and Kentucky, all top 60 teams in Pomeroy.
Out of the league, SMU played two Top 60 teams, losing to Mississippi State and defeating LSU.
Louisville has three wins over teams with winning records in ACC play — Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina.
SMU has none. The Mustangs’s five ACC victories came against Virginia (twice), Boston College, Georgia Tech and Miami, teams with a combined record of 4-25.
According to the important NCAA NET rankings, Louisville is 3-5 against Quad I opponents. SMU is 0-3.
That’s correct. Beating Louisville would be SMU’s first Quad I win.
“Looking back on it, the rigorous schedule, the difficult schedule that we played, the lens that I have right how, yes, I would say it was helpful,” Kelsey said.
“I don’t know where it ranks on all the different things that go into creating a winning team and being a team that has an opportunity to compete for a championship.
“But I think it was helpful to have some of those tough games and challenges early on. Found out a lot about ourselves and I think it helped us in a lot of ways. When you’re going through it, it’s really tough.”
Tuesday night will also be tough. Moody Coliseum is a compact (8,998 seats), intimate, rowdy environment. Pomeroy ranks Moody No. 40 in his home court advantage metric, ahead of Kentucky (No. 50), NC State (No. 69), or Syracuse (No. 113). Former President George W. Bush occasionally shows up to watch.
The Mustangs are 8-2 at home, losing to No. 15 Mississippi State by 5 and No. 3 Duke by 27.
“They’re talented, well-coached and can win a bunch of different ways,” Kelsey said.
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