LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Gonzaga will be a No. 1 seed for the 2022 NCAA men’s basketball Tournament. You can write that on your early tournament bracket with bold lime green Sharpie.
The wise guys say Auburn is the next-likeliest team to wrap its arms around a top seed. I’d advise putting the top back on your Sharpie.
As solid as Bruce Pearl’s 22-1 team looks 34 days from Selection Sunday, the Tigers’ credentials could take a hit as soon as Tuesday night when they visit Arkansas.
In fact, Auburn is already looking for love from the major computer formulas, creating a scenario where I believe it’s safe to safe Gonzaga is the only lock No. 1 seed.
After that?
You have five teams scrambling for three spots.
The voters in the Associated Press poll rank the top six in this order:
- Auburn
- Gonzaga
- Purdue
- Arizona
- Kentucky
- Houston
Ken Pomeroy’s computer formula says the voters have it wrong. His numbers rank them:
- Gonzaga
- Arizona
- Kentucky
- Houston
- Purdue
- Baylor
On top with the AP voters, Auburn sits at No. 7 with KenPom.
Bart Torvik’s formula also has questions about Auburn, placing the Tigers No. 8. His numbers have it:
- Gonzaga
- Houston
- Kentucky
- Purdue
- Arizona
- Duke
- Kansas
- Auburn
Jeff Sagarin is the dean of college basketball computer analysts. He has shared his work with the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee for several decades. His preferred Predictor formula, which includes margin of victory, dismisses Auburn at No. 10.
Sagarin ranks the other contenders:
- Gonzaga
- Arizona
- Houston
- Kansas
- Purdue
- Baylor
- Kentucky
- Villanova
- Duke
- Auburn
Sagarin has closer to a 3-seed than a 1-seed.
I’d better not forget the NCAA Net computer numbers. Auburn is also outside No. 1 seed territory at No. 7.
Net has it:
- Gonzaga
- Houston
- Arizona
- Kentucky
- Purdue
- Villanova
- Auburn
Confused? Me, too.
But I’ll default to what I said several paragraphs ago: Five teams are tussling over three spots, with the absolute possibility that Duke enters the argument if the Blue Devils continue to roll untouched through the Atlantic Coast Conference.
The interesting news from the numbers is the soft endorsement the computers give to Auburn. The only stumble by the Tigers in 23 games was in double overtime to Connecticut.
A closer look at Auburn’s schedule shows the Tigers’ best non-league wins came against Loyola (Chicago) and Murray State.
Kentucky did not win at Auburn — in a game where both Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington were injured. The Wildcats also lost to a Louisiana State team that Auburn defeated.
Kentucky must also overcome a lightweight non-league schedule as well as losses to Duke and Notre Dame. But super-sized wins over Kansas on the road, North Carolina on a neutral court and Tennessee in Rupp Arena add juice to Kentucky’s credentials.
Kentucky's Oscar Tshiebwe grabs one of his Rupp Arena-record 28 rebounds in a victory over WKU.
If Kentucky can deliver on the road against Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida, John Calipari’s team can take a No. 1 seed away from Auburn at the Southeastern Conference Tournament in Tampa.
Pomeroy’s formula puts Houston’s win probability at 73% or higher for its nine remaining games in the American Athletic Conference. Considering Houston played in the Final Four last season and that the Cougars have great computer rankings, Kelvin Sampson’s team is a legit contender for a top seed.
But the fine print also shows that Houston lost to Wisconsin and Alabama, the top two teams on the Cougars’ non-AAC schedule.
Do not look past Arizona, which just beat UCLA and USC in Tucson. Arizona has an excellent road win at Illinois with a four-point loss to Tennessee in Knoxville. If they win the Pac-12 (and Pomeroy has them favored in every game), I like the Wildcats’ chances.
Finally, there is Purdue. The Boilermakers have the support of the human poll and one computer poll. But Matt Painter’s team sits in a second-place tie in the Big Ten. They have defensive efficiency rankings of No. 96 in Torvik and No. 106 in Pomeroy.
Purdue might still earn a No. 1 seed. That is not the profile of a Final Four team.
Kentucky does have that profile, ranking No. 5 in offensive efficiency and No. 11 in defensive efficiency with KenPom.
Like Gonzaga, Arizona, Houston, Baylor, Auburn and Duke, Kentucky is one of seven teams that qualifies as a national title contender with top-20 rankings in offense and defense.
The chance to earn a No. 1 seed is right there for Calipari’s team, something nobody predicted after Kentucky lost at Notre Dame two months ago.
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