LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- The college football over/under win totals are arriving from the good folks in Las Vegas.
Looking at the numbers, one takeaway jumped out: Welcome to the Hot Seat, Mark Stoops.
The oddsmakers put the over/under for the University of Kentucky for the 2025 regular season at 5.5 victories.
If the Wildcats slog home at five or six wins after last season's uninspiring 4-8 finish, the calls for a new coach will rule the conversation around Kentucky football.
Louisville | Kentucky | Indiana | Bozich & Crawford
For the record, Vegas put the number for Jeff Brohm and Louisville at 8.5. Seems reasonable, considering the offensive weapons Brohm has collected.
Vegas put the number for Curt Cignetti and Indiana at 8.5. Seems as if the wise guys do not believe that the Hoosiers' 11-2 College Football Playoff performance last season was a fluke.
But 5.5 wins for Kentucky?
That's a flashing light. It suggests the wise guys believe Stoops has lost his mojo and that the days of Kentucky winning eight, nine or 10 games are over.
The only SEC program with a lower starting over/under is Mississippi State at 3.5. Arkansas, where coach Sam Pittman is another Hot Seat guy, and Vanderbilt are also at 5.5.
The issues have been discussed since UK's consecutive bowl game streak ended at eight last season.
Too much turnover on the offensive coaching staff. Too many whiffs on finding a prime-time quarterback, like Brohm has done at Louisville and Cignetti in Bloomington.
Defense and a reasonable running game can only carry a team so far. UK was only 10th in the SEC in total and scoring defense last season.
Stoops, of course, did not help himself with his less-than-subtle pursuit of the Texas A&M job at the end of the 2023 season.
It was a job he appeared to have — until he didn't. Not long after his name was floated, Texas A&M boosters firmly pushed back on the idea of spending all that Jimbo Fisher buyout money to hire a Kentucky coach who wobbled to a 7-5 record during the 2023 regular season.
Stoops failed to meet modest expectations in 2024. Losing home games to South Carolina (by 25), Vanderbilt (by seven) and Auburn (by 14) created legitimate questions about what was going on with the Wildcats.
The 41-14 beatdown by Louisville and its superior quarterback (Tyler Shough) and freshmen running backs (Isaac Brown and Duke Watson) cranked the volume on the unhappiness in Lexington to 10-plus.
This looks like Stoops' last chance to show that he understands Kentucky must embrace modern offensive football. The Wildcats have ranked in the bottom four in passing offense in the Southeastern Conference for four consecutive seasons.
Last season was brutally ineffective. The Wildcats were the only SEC team that threw more interceptions (17) than touchdown passes (15). They averaged less than 185 yards passing per game. The big boys crank the passing game to 300-plus yards. UK huffed and puffed to six TD passes in eight SEC games.
Can't happen. Bush Hamden returns for his second season as the offensive coordinator. But while Brohm landed Miller Moss (284 yards passing per game) from USC and Indiana recruited Fernando Mendoza (273 yards passing per game) from California, Kentucky's portal quarterback is Zach Calzada.
After three uneven seasons at Texas A&M and one injured season at Auburn, Calzada dropped to FCS play to put up video game numbers at Incarnate Word, throwing 53 touchdown passes in two seasons.
Maybe those two seasons in the Southland Conference created the confidence that Calzada needs to succeed in his third crack at an SEC program.
But Vegas looks at Kentucky's schedule and asks legitimate questions. The Wildcats do not figure to be favored in any of their first six SEC games: Ole Miss, at South Carolina, at Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and at Auburn.
The other two league games are Florida at Kroger Field and at Vanderbilt.
Giving Kentucky two of those games means the Wildcats will have to sweep their non-conference schedule to get to six wins and bowl eligibility.
The three scheduled home wins are Toledo, Eastern Michigan and Tennessee Tech. The Governor's Cup game returns to L&N Cardinal Stadium, where UK has won four straight games.
Only the last win came against Brohm. The Cards figure to be favored when the teams play Nov. 29 — and we'll discover if Stoops and Kentucky will hit over or under on the 5.5-wins projection by Las Vegas.
College Football Coverage:
CRAWFORD | Key storylines as Louisville opens 3rd spring practice under Jeff Brohm
Point of View | Surprise! Mark Stoops is just an average coach
CRAWFORD | Empty seats, hard questions: Has Kentucky plateaued under Stoops?
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