LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — For Louisville football coach Jeff Brohm and his team, you could probably consider it a gift. For only the second time this season, and the first time in a road game, Brohm will be able to play the underdog card.
Louisville is a 1.5-point underdog at Miami on Saturday — at some sports books. At others, it is a slight favorite, or even a pick ‘em. It has closed as an underdog only one other time this season — against Notre Dame at home back on Oct. 7 (the Irish were a 6.5-point favorite). It hasn't been an underdog in a single ACC game all season.
Does it matter? No. Could it be a motivational factor? Absolutely.
Now, Louisville needs no extra motivation for a game in which a victory carries a berth in the program’s first-ever ACC championship game. But a little extra never hurt.
Louisville is 9-1, ranked No. 9 in the nation, and is an underdog in a game against a 6-4 Miami team that has lost back-to-back games.
If there’s any indication that Louisville’s program enters its final two regular season games with more to prove, that’s it.
But if you expect to hear Brohm talking about “no respect” and other similar tropes, forget it — at least publicly. He’s more focused on a Miami defense that ranks No. 7 nationally against the run, allowing just 86 yards per game.
The Hurricanes have the second highest-graded defense the Cards have faced all season, according to ProFootballFocus.com. They rank 17th defensively according to that website (tied with Louisville). For reference, Notre Dame’s defense is ranked No. 7 by PFF, and N.C. State is ranked No. 21.
“When you watch these guys on film, they might be the most talented team that we've seen to date on the defensive side of the ball,” Brohm said. “They're big up front, they're athletic, they’re good at the linebacker position, they run and make plays. The secondary has good size and speed and looks the part and play plays fast. This team is talented, without question. They're very talented. They’ve lost a few close games, but they still have played some really good football, and we have to play well or it's not going to be a good day for us. I just think that we have to step up to the challenge and find ways to do the small things to keep us in the game and to not make a lot of mistakes and find a way to grind the thing out in the second half, but it'll be important that we come ready to play because this team is very talented.”
Point spreads from the 2023 season for the University of Louisville football team.
Beginning with Virginia, Louisville figured to face a series of games against teams determined to stop the run. Virginia loaded up the box, dared Louisville to win in the passing game, and the Cardinals broke through with a couple of big completions late. In the run game, Louisville got an early 42-yard run from Jawhar Jordan, and kept pounding away until Isaac Guerendo broke a 73-yard touchdown run for the eventual game-winner.
But for the game, those two runs accounted for 115 of Louisville’s 180 rushing yards. Passing, Louisville QB Jake Plummer was 4-10 on throw of 10 yards or more, and went 19-28 for the game overall. His average depth of target was 9.4 yards.
It stands to reason, Louisville will be called upon to operate with more creativity in the running game and more efficiency in the passing game against Miami.
But the Hurricanes’ offense will be tested by Louisville’s defense, as well. After moving to a new quarterback last week, Miami figures to be back to its original starter, Tyler Van Dyke, who has thrown for 2,086 yards and 16 touchdowns this season, completing nearly 67 percent of his passes. But he has also thrown 14 interceptions.
For Louisville, one reason the spread may be what it is could be the perception that the Cardinals just aren’t as good away from L&N Stadium. Their wins in road and semi-neutral venues have been close – but they have been wins.
Brohm isn’t necessarily buying into the home-road narrative.
“I think that we faced some good opponents on the road and every game is competitive, every advantage you have to try to take,” he said. “When you're at home and the crowd is on your side and the noise levels on your side, it's an advantage. We, without question, have to find a way to start faster on the road, which we have not done for the most part. I know we did it at Indiana, but for the most part, we have not. We've got to be able to finish, and I just think playing consistent football for four quarters with as few lapses as we possibly can is important. On the road, you can't lose the turnover battle. You can't have dumb penalties that hurt your team. All those little things you have to try to have go in our favor, so we've got to concentrate on those and make sure that we try to win those battles as we're trying to be the most physical team and the toughest team and in finding ways to get points.”
The winner gets the Schnellenberger Trophy, on the line for the first time since being instituted as a tribute to legendary coach Howard Schnellenberger, who died in 2021.
Brohm said heading into a big game for his program with championship expectations, he’ll lean a lot on the philosophy of his old coach and mentor.
“Coach Schnellenberger was a real football guy that could talk the talk and walk the walk and took on every challenge ahead of him full speed ahead with no fear, and his players and teams responded,” Brohm said. “I just think anyone that knows him or played for him has learned a lot from him. Basically, how to not back away from big games, how to rise to the occasion, how to get the most out of your players and your team. I think there's a lot of people on both sides of these two teams that will have a lot of connections to coach and take a lot of things from him, and definitely I'm one of them.”
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