LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — The reasons to pick Kentucky to upset Tennessee Saturday at Kroger Field are obvious:
The Volunteers could be emotionally vulnerable after blowing a 20-7 halftime lead and losing at Alabama, 34-20, last Saturday. The Vols are also 0-2 away from Knoxville.
The reasons to pick Tennessee are equally obvious:
The Vols bounced back from a loss at Alabama two years ago and won in Lexington in their next game. And Jeff Sagarin’s predictive computer formula favors Tennessee by 11.55 points over UK.
You make the call.
The Time: Saturday, 7 p.m., Kroger Field, Lexington.
How to Watch/Listen: TV — ESPN, Mike Monaco, play by play; Jesse Palmer, analyst; Katie George, sidelines; Radio — UK Sports Network, 840 AM, Tom Leach, play by play; Jeff Piecoro, analyst; Dick Gabriel, sidelines.
The Line: Point spread, Tennessee favored by 3.5; Over/under (total points scored), 51.5.
The Last Time: The Volunteers dominated the Wildcats, 44-6, at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville last season.
The Series: Tennessee has won the last two meetings and leads the overall series 82-26-9. Kentucky’s last win in Lexington came in 2017.
The Records: No. 21 Tennessee is 5-2 with victories against Virginia, Austin Peay, UTSA, South Carolina and Texas A&M but SEC losses to Florida and Alabama. Kentucky won its first five over Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, Vanderbilt and Florida before losing back-to-back games to Georgia and Missouri.
Player to Watch Tennessee: Quarterback Joe Milton III is a transfer from Michigan who has been a dynamic passer and runner. Milton is a 63% passer with 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, who has also run for 232 yards and 4 scores.
Player to Watch Kentucky: Halfback Ray Davis leads the Southeastern Conference in rushing at 111 yards per game. Tennessee ranks fifth in the SEC in rushing defense, allowing 110 ypg. Something has to give.
Sideline Storylines:
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel has lost back-to-back games only twice in six seasons as a head coach. The last time was 2021 when the Vols lost to No. 13 Ole Miss and No. 4 Alabama.
The Tennessee defense allows 4.6 yards per play, which ranks 14th nationally and third in the SEC.
Since 2021, the Vols rank first in the nation, running 2.89 plays per minute. Of the Vols’ 94 scoring drives during that stretch, 52 have lasted less than 2 minutes. The Vols rank fourth nationally in pace of play this season, running 2.79 plays per minute.
According to ProFootballFocus, Tennessee has the two highest-rated edge rushers in the SEC — James Pearce Jr. and Joshua Josephs.
Although Kentucky has the league’s top back, Tennessee leads the SEC in rushing at 217 yards per game. Jaylen Wright and Dylan Sampson have both posted 100-yard rushing games this season.
UK cornerback Maxwell Hairston leads the SEC with 5 interceptions, including two that he returned for a touchdown.
Two Vols played high school football. Second-team linebacker Kalib Perry of Great Crossing High School and cornerback Cristian Conyer, a freshman from South Warren High in Bowling Green.
The Wildcats have 6 Tennessee natives, led by starting receiver Barion Brown (Nashville) and second-team defensive end Tre’Vonnof of Dickson, Tenn.
A win would make Kentucky bowl eligible for a school record 8th consecutive season.
After rushing for 122 or more yards for 3 consecutive games last season, Davis was limited to 60 yards on 21 carries by UT when he played for Vanderbilt last season.
Kentucky has outscored its three SEC opponents 51-0 in the first quarter.
The Quote: Heupel on his respect for Kentucky’s rushing attack:
"You've got to stop them early at the line of scrimmage. Their offensive line, their tight ends, they're extremely physical. They do a really good job getting a hat on a hat. We've got to be violent, and we've got to be disruptive.”
The Pick: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 20.
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