LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, it's not just the horses that keep things unpredictable.
The late John Asher used to to have a saying:
"It's always 70 and sunny at Churchill Downs on the First Saturday in May."
But nobody knew better than he did, that wasn't always the case.
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Derby Day has thrown just about everything at Churchill Downs — from blazing heat to pounding rain, and even a little sleet (though those of us who were there will swear to you there were snowflakes).
Here's a look at the wild and often unpredictable weather history of the Kentucky Derby:
Rain or Shine?
The numbers tell the story:
Out of 150 Kentucky Derby Days, 72 of them — nearly half — have seen rain at some point. That number is expected to grow this year. The latest forecast is below.
The wettest Derby on record came not long ago, when a soaking 3.15 inches of rain fell on May 5, 2018. Of that, 2.8 inches had fallen before post time, breaking the previous record for wettest Derby set in 1981.
That race, run over a sealed track rated "sloppy," produced one of the messiest scenes in Derby history. It also set Justify on his way to the Triple Crown.
But Derby weather can swing the other way, too.
In 1959, the temperature climbed to a scorching 94 degrees, making it the hottest Derby Day ever recorded.
And on the flip side, Derby fans shivered through the coldest Derby on May 4, 1957, when the thermometer dipped to 36 degrees, accompanied by stiff 25 mph winds.
The Dust Derby and Other Extremes
In 1880, Churchill Downs hosted the infamous "Dust Derby," with about six inches of dust blanketing the racetrack after weeks without rain.
Sleet has even made an appearance. During the Derby of 1989, sleet briefly pelted the grounds from 1:01 to 1:05 p.m., giving the early afternoon a wintery touch before clearing up for the big race.
And though it didn't fall on Derby Day itself, heavy storms forced the only evacuation of the Churchill Downs infield during the Oaks in 2012 — just a day before the Derby.
A tractor seals the Churchill Downs track before the Kentucky Derby in 2019.
How the Track Has Handled It
Despite the rain, mud, and even a little sleet, most Kentucky Derbies have still been run over a fast surface, including the past five editions of the Derby. The last run over an off track was in 2019, over a track rated "sloppy" and sealed.
That race culminated three straight Derbies run on sealed tracks. Racetracks, in most conditions, are watered and harrowed, creating a cushion. But when very sloppy, tractors will drag the surface flat to seal out moisture and reduce the amount of water reaching the base.
Here's how the official track conditions have broken down over the years (note -- the designations have changed over time):
- Fast track: 105 times
- Good: 11 times
- Muddy: 7 times
- Sloppy: 9 times
- Heavy: 8 times
- Slow: 6 times
- Dusty: 3 times
- Wet fast: 1 time
Rain or shine, Derby Day goes on — ponchos, mud boots and all. (Just don't bring an umbrella — they're banned at Churchill Downs for security reasons.)
What about this year?
If current forecasts hold, this will be the 73rd Derby Day to see rain. The latest forecast discussion from WDRB's Jude Redfield on WDRB News in the Morning.
"You know how you can feel the cooler air temperatures dropping into the 50s and 60s? That would limit a really good chance for storms," Redfield said Saturday morning. "That's not to say we couldn't get some pop ups later on. So this is more of that steady, light rain that will come down at times. . . . There could be a brief moment of peekaboo sun, but essentially it's going to be rain from what we have occurring right now through the early afternoon is when we're probably talking that likelihood of 90 to almost 100 percent chance you'll feel some drizzle and light rain. And a 60 percent chance of showers at 3 p.m. And if there's going to be any of those pop-up thunderstorms, we'll be watching for those this afternoon."
As always, stay tuned to WDRB News for the latest weather info, and download the WDRB Weather App for 24-hour information.
Note: Information for this story was taken, in part, from records at the National Weather Service, and include full-day measurements, which do not always take into account exact conditions at post-time. Temperatures were measured at the airport, not Churchill Downs itself.
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