A G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for 2 June. A powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted from the Sun the evening of May 30th. The CME is anticipated to arrive at Earth later on Sunday, June 1st. The CME arrival will likely lead to immediate geomagnetic disturbances with the potential for G3 (Strong) levels, and a chance for G4. Conditions will likely intensify as CME progression continues and G4 levels become more possible on Monday, June 2nd. Geomagnetic storm levels will likely begin subsiding by Tuesday, June 3rd, with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) still possible. Confidence in an Earth-arrival component to this CME is good. However, timing and intensity are more uncertain. These watches represent potential based on our best analyses. We will not know the true nature of this CME’s geomagnetic storm potential until the CME arrives at our solar wind observatories located 1 million miles from Earth. Upon arrival at those spacecraft, we will know the magnetic strength and orientation that are very important to what levels and duration of geomagnetic storm conditions are expected to occur.
But how will sky conditions be over the next few days? Well... we've got some good news and some bad news.
The good news is that high pressure will be in play, and that tends to make for some perfectly clear nights. This should be the case both Sunday night and Monday night!
Now for the bad news: the wildfire smoke from Canada will definitely be present from now into early next week. While much more transparent than clouds, any sort of obstruction will be less than ideal when dealing with auroras.
We'll have more updates on the timing of the potential aurora and the likelihood of it actually being visible this far south when we get more data tomorrow. For now, we'll just have to play the waiting game!
