Mother Nature has been providing us with a lot of rain chances the last couple of days and we aren't done yet. More showers and storms are on the way for tonight and on Wednesday. Could any be severe? It is possible, so let's dive into it all. 

Tonight 

Most of the daytime for Tuesday has been dry, but tonight will be a different story. Rain and storms will be increasing across our area through the majority of the overnight hours. 

You can see that a lot of what is moving through is moderate to heavy rainfall in many cases. This will give a lot of folks some good rain totals overnight alone. Is severe possible tonight? In short, it's not impossible, but there is no organized severe threat for tonight. 

There is still storm energy available tonight, enough to get some storms with some good thunder and lightning on them. Any storm could have some gusty winds with them that can knock over weak items. 

We are lacking wind energy tonight so any storm that develops overnight will look very similar to last night, but more widespread.

Wednesday

Wednesday's rain chance is pretty sky high. It won't be raining all day long, but there a couple of waves that both bring their own impacts. 

First Wave

The first wave on Wednesday will likely move through early in the day before and just after sunrise. These storms will be rolling in along a warm front and will have access to a decent amount of wind energy, especially any storms that linger into the mid-morning hours. 

There will not be a ton of storm energy available during the early morning though, which could help limit the strong storm threat in an organized fashion starting the day.

We will likely still have a break in between waves for a good chunk of the daytime. It will still be breezy, but storm development looks more limited during mid-morning to late afternoon. This will give the atmosphere more time to build storm energy for the second wave.

Second Wave

The second one is more of a complicated scenario, but also has a better chance at seeing severe weather. With us drying off for part of the day, we will build storm energy back up by the late afternoon, in time for the next round of storms. They will eat up off this energy and will continue to push through our area all the way through early Thursday morning.

You can see the higher CAPE (Storm energy) totals...

..but what about wind energy? We typically look for winds above 40mph at the 850mb level of the atmosphere. In this case, the strongest wind energy, which shows close to 50mph, is around mid-morning into late afternoon. That is when we are likely dry. By the time the second wave arrives, the wind energy will be decreasing. 

It will still be enough to possibly get some warnings in our area tomorrow afternoon & evening, but it is not enough for widespread, organized severe weather. For now, the SPC only has a Level 1 Marginal risk out for our area, but a Slight (2/5) will probably be needed.