Now that Oaks and Derby are both in view on the 7-day, it helps to have a perspective of the worst weather we have seen on these days and what "normal" weather looks like this time of year. 

OAKS

  • Coldest temperature:  38° May 19, 1894
  • Coldest high temperature:  44° May 19, 1894
  • Warmest temperature:  94° May 6, 1949
  • Warmest low temperature:  73° May 25, 1918
  • Wettest:  1.40" May 5, 1961

Out of the 146 Kentucky Oaks Days, 77 (53%) experienced rain at some point during the day (all of this data comes from the National Weather Service office in Louisville). You can click here to see a full record of the weather each Oaks Day going back to 1875! And here is that same list for the Derby.

DERBY

  • Coldest temperature:  36° May 4, 1940 and May 4, 1957
  • Coldest high temperature:  47° May 4, 1935 and May 4, 1957 (The cold temperatures on May 4, 1957 were accompanied by 20 to 25 mph north winds!)
  • Warmest temperature:  94° May 2, 1959
  • Warmest low temperature:  72° May 14, 1886
  • Wettest:  3.15" of rain May 5, 2018 (one that stays fresh on our minds with any rain in the forecast)
  • Frozen precipitation:  On May 6, 1989 sleet was observed from 1:01pm to 1:05pm.

Out of the 147 Derby Days, 69 (47%) experienced rain at some point during the day.

This year the Kentucky Oaks will happen May 6 and the Kentucky Derby on May 7. The average low temperature for both days is 56º based on climate data from the last 30 years. The average high on May 6 is 75º, and it's 76º on May 7 in Louisville. 

What are we expecting this year? An active pattern. That doesn't necessarily mean thunderstorm activity, but it does mean several weather systems moving in and around our region this week. The timing of the different rounds of rain will change in the next few days as we get more data and better data once these systems move on shore from the Pacific Ocean.Â