Pat Kelsey

Pat Kelsey talks to his team during a huddle for a video review.

 ERIC CRAWFORD

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- There is a reasonable chance the University of Louisville and Kentucky men's basketball discussion will be revisited on the court during the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

All that will be required is for Mark Pope's UK team to earn a 3-seed on Selection Sunday and Pat Kelsey's U of L team to nab a 6-seed. And, UK's 3 and U of L's 6 is precisely the forecast at the BracketMatrix website, which averages the results from 85 projected brackets.

Put both teams in the same regional. Cats win their opening game. Cards win their opening game.

BINGO! We have liftoff.

But a curveball is creeping into that narrative. Kentucky has lost two of its last three, three of its last five, five of its last nine and seven of its last 12.

Louisville has lost one of its last 18.

Yes, the Southeastern Conference is 18 rounds with Mike Tyson in his prime. Yes, the Atlantic Coast Conference is arm-wrestling with your grandson. Twelve to 14 SEC teams are likely to make the 68-team NCAA Tournament field. If North Carolina and Wake Forest keep floundering, the ACC will settle for Duke, Clemson and Louisville.

But make a note of this: If you study the numbers from the prominent analytics formulas (and the NCAA Tournament Selection committee does), Louisville does indeed project as a 6-seed.

Kentucky does not project as a 3-seed. The Wildcats also look more like a 6-seed.

I collected the numbers from six formulas: the NCAA Net Rating, Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, Evan Miyakawa, Erik Haslam and the old Ratings Percentage Index.

Kentucky was ranked as high as No. 10 (RPI) and as low as 31 (EvanMiya). Louisville was ranked as high as No. 19 (Torvik, RPI) but no lower than 26 (EvanMiya).

  • Average UK rating: 20.3, the first No. 6 seed
  • Average U of L rating: 22.5, also a No. 6 seed

Here are the complete numbers:

*EvanMiya has multiple formulas, including one that factors injuries. With UK guard Jaxson Robinson out for the season and Lamont Butler batting shoulder issues, injuries are critical for Mark Pope's team.

When you're talking about the NCAA Tournament, you have to begin with the Net formula, an NCAA creation. Other than the RPI (outdated and ignored by many), the Net gives Kentucky its best number — 15, ahead of Illinois, Purdue, St. Mary's and St. John's.

Quad I victories are credentials that come without an expiration date. Kentucky has 9 Quad I wins in 18 opportunities. That's terrific.

Only four teams — Auburn 16, Alabama, Tennessee and Michigan State, all 10 — have more Quad I wins than the Wildcats.

Kentucky and Auburn are the only teams that have played 18 games against Quad I opponents. Louisville has played 8 — beating Clemson at home; West Virginia on a neutral site and SMU and Pitt on the road, while losing to Tennessee, Ole Miss and Duke at home as well as at UK.

Those Kentucky wins over Duke, Gonzaga and Louisville as well as the Wildcats sweeping Tennessee and starting SEC play by defeating Florida will not disappear.

But the metrics that reflect current trends are not as kind to the Wildcats. Kentucky has lost 14 spots in EvanMiya over the last month and 12 spots in the last week.

Although the Cards lost three spots in the last week, they're even with their spot in his formula a month ago.

On Jan. 1, Kentucky ranked No. 15 at Torvik. Louisville was No. 60. At the end of January the Wildcats were 14th, the Cards 25th.

In the middle of February Kentucky slipped to 17th, Louisville 26. Today it is Louisville 19th, followed by Clemson, Saint Mary's, Kansas and then Kentucky.

According to Torvik, if you rank the teams from the first of the year, Louisville sits at No. 10 while the Wildcats are 24th.

At No. 10 on Torvik since Jan. 1, the Cards are ahead of Tennessee (14), UK (24), Ole Miss (27) and Oklahoma (61), Southeastern Conference teams that gave Louisville four its half dozen defeats.

Heck, since the first of the year, Torvik's formula has Louisville ahead of Big Ten leaders Michigan State and Michigan, Big East champion St. John's and Big 12 powers Arizona, Iowa State and BYU.

Just a few things that the NCAA Tournament Selection committee might consider as Selection Sunday inches closer.

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