LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Unless something outrageous happens, I believe that three of the four No. 1 seeds for the men's NCAA Basketball Tournament have been decided.

Auburn is a cinch. Duke is a cinch. And Houston is likely a cinch. Let's hope injuries don't derail those teams — or any team.

The fourth No. 1 seed remains in play. Tennessee, Florida and Alabama are the likely candidates. But if Michigan State wins out in the Big Ten and delivers in the conference tournament, the Spartans have a shot.

The computer formulas are not crazy about Rick Pitino and St. John's. Pitino's team is not ranked in the Top 10 in the NCAA Net, Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik or EvanMiya formulas.

But the Red Storm have already clinched first place in the league that produced the last two national champions. And I'll take Pitino over Rick Barnes, Todd Golden, Nate Oats or Tom Izzo on my coaching bracket.

We'll be able to fuss about all that in two weeks when the 68-team field is announced.

Oh, and one other thing — I moved Louisville ahead of Kentucky his week.

I know UK won by 8 in mid-December. I know Mark Pope's team is caught in the unforgiving vise of the SEC. But those losses to Texas and Vanderbilt, and the close call against Oklahoma have to mean something. Not to mention the 10-point home stumble against Arkansas. 

The Wildcats have been a 5-7 team since the middle of January — and now they're without Jaxson Robinson.

Until then, you can fuss at my latest ballot in the Associated Press Top 25.

  1. Auburn (27-2): I believe that Auburn looked like a team capable of winning the NCAA Tournament over their 40-minute domination of Kentucky in Rupp Arena.
  2. Duke (26-3): It's Duke-North Carolina week. Don't worry I'm not excited about it either.
  3. Houston (25-4): Kelvin Sampson's team has a 4-game lead in the Big 12. Impressive.
  4. Tennessee (24-5): The Vols have won seven of eight in the SEC, with the sole loss at Rupp Arena over that stretch.
  5. St. Johns (26-4): The Red Storm face a trip to Marquette Saturday before the Big East Tournament opens in Madison Square Garden. Tom Jurich was Pitino's guest in New York City Saturday.
  6. Florida (25-4): The Gators rank in the top seven in offensive and defensive efficiency.
  7. Alabama (23-6): The Crimson Tide can vault over the Gators with a victory over Florida in Tuscaloosa Wednesday, but then they must visit Auburn Saturday.
  8. Michigan State (24-5): The Spartans have a one-game edge in the Big Ten and will likely settle the title Saturday when Michigan visits East Lansing.
  9. Texas Tech (22-7): The Red Raiders came up 18 points short at Houston.
  10. Maryland (22-7): The Terps have not lost by more than six points all season but that six-point loss came against a Washington team that will miss the Big Ten Tournament.
  11. Iowa State (22-7): The Cyclones took a bad loss at Oklahoma State before bouncing back against Arizona.
  12. Wisconsin (22-7): After losing two of their last three, the Badgers should regain their mojo against Minnesota and Penn State.
  13. Missouri (21-8): Former Indiana guard Scoop Bates is shooting 41% from distance for the Tigers.
  14. Saint Mary's (27-4): The Gaels finished three games ahead of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference.
  15. Clemson (24-5): The Tigers remain the only ACC team to pin a loss on Cooper Flagg and Duke, inspiring more chatter about Brad Brownell and Indiana.
  16. Arizona (19-10): The Wildcats have lost four of their last six : and the last one was a blowout at Iowa State.
  17. BYU (21-8): The Cougars have won six straight and face a Prove It game at Iowa State Tuesday.
  18. Michigan (22-7): The Wolverines were fortunate to survive Rutgers, lost badly to Illinois and must play Maryland and Michigan State to finish Big Ten play.
  19. Louisville (23-6): The Cards should be at 25 wins by the end of the week, which would be the program's most victories since 2017.
  20. Purdue (20-9): Credit the slide of the Boilermakers to issues on defense, where they rank No. 51 in defensive efficiency.
  21. Kentucky (19-10): The Wildcats need to handle LSU at home and Missouri on the road to deliver a winning record in the SEC.
  22. Memphis (24-5): Guess which team is in second place behind the Tigers in the American Athletic Conference? Wrong. It's North Texas.
  23. VCU (24-5): Ryan Odom has the Rams atop the Atlantic 10 and has positioned himself for a Power Conference job jump.
  24. Illinois (19-11): The Illini showed they are finally getting healthy by winning by 20 at Michigan.
  25. Marquette (22-7): The Golden Eagles might not stay here long, with a challenging trip to UConn and a home game with St. John's.

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