LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — In the last five seasons, the Louisville (0), Kentucky (1) and Indiana (2) men’s basketball programs combined to win half as many NCAA Tournament games as Connecticut won in the final three weeks of this season.
Gulp.
The Cardinals, Wildcats and Hoosiers remain several furlongs behind the Huskies, Purdue, Houston, Kansas and other programs that have ruled the sport this decade.
But more data continues to emerge that the Big Sleep is coming to an end.
I’ve already written about Bart Torvik’ projected team rankings for 2025, which currently show the Hoosiers projected at No. 19 (up from No. 83); Kentucky No. 36 (down from No. 27) and Louisville No. 98 (up from No. 190).
Another analytics site — EvanMiya.com (subscription required) — has also posted encouraging forecasts about the Cardinals, Wildcats and Hoosiers for 2024-25. (Link to EvanMiya.)
Although I subscribe to Evan Miyakawa’s excellent work and he messaged me with an update, I’ll only share some of the data because it is a pay site.
But this is how he ranks the incoming transfer portal classes:
1. Louisville
2. Michigan
3. Kentucky
4. Indiana
5. Missouri
That reads as if we’ve stepped back in time.
And this is how Miyakawa ranks the Top 5 programs in overall portal activity, a measurement of what a school lost in the portal against players who transferred out.
1. Indiana
2. Louisville
3. Missouri
4. Michigan
5. Kentucky (surprising, considering the exodus in Lexington)
Again, because this is a pay site (one that I would encourage a legit hoops junkie to patronize), I will limit the information on the classes.
But Miyakawa’s analytics show that new Louisville coach Pat Kelsey and his staff earned commitments from three players who earned 5-star portal rankings — center Aly Khalifa from Brigham Young; Wisconsin point guard Chucky Hepburn and Washington guard Koren Johnson.
Khalifa is the highest ranked player in the group at No. 19 overall, although he is currently scheduled to sit next season while recovering from knee surgery.
Mark Pope’s first UK class is led by four players that Miyakawa’s formula ranked 5-star transfer portal players — Wake Forest forward Andrew Carr; Oklahoma guad Otega Oweh; West Virginia point guard Kerr Krissa and San Diego State point guard LaMont Butler. Carr leads that group as the No. 36 overall transfer portal prospect.
Mike Woodson has added four players from the portal at Indiana, although at least one recruiting service has filed a crystal ball prediction that Bellarmine center Langdon Hatton will become the Hoosiers’ fifth portal addition.
Oumar Ballo, the former center at Arizona and Gonzaga, is the Hoosiers’ top recruit. Miyakawa ranks Ballo as the third-best player in the portal, behind a pair of players who have yet to commit — Seton Hall guard Kadary Richmond and Illinois forward Coleman Hawkins.
The next question is inevitable:
How do Miyakawa’s numbers compare to other transfer portal rankings?
Here are the Top 5 classes, according to 247Sports.com:
2. Indiana
3. Kansas
4. West Virginia
5. Kentucky
Louisville’s eight-player class is ranked No. 19, with six guys earning 4-star designation, topped by Hepburn and James Madison wing Terrence Edwards Jr.
All seven UK commits earned 4-star status from 247. The top four players are Oklahoma State center Brandon Garrison; Oweh, Carr and Butler.
Woodson also went four-for-four in recruiting 4 stars. Ballo and former Stanford guard Kanaan Carlyle are the headliners although Washington State guard Myles Rice was voted the freshman of the year in the Pac-12 and figures to be IU’s starting point guard.
On3Sports has a different formula. The rankings are based on the talent a program lost as well as the group of players who are incoming.
Here are the Top 5 classes, according to On3:
1. Louisville
2. West Virginia
3. UCLA
4. Indiana
5. Georgia
Kentucky sits at No. 34 because 4-star prospects Adou Thierro; Zvnoimir Ivisic; Aaron Bradshaw and D.J. Wagner departed.
March has brought more misery than madness to Kentuckiana in recent years. That seems likely to end.
Copyright 2024 WDRB Media. All rights reserved.
