LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- There are three men's college basketball programs that are absolutely, positively locks to be No. 1 seeds in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
I'm talking about Houston, Connecticut and Purdue.
I don't need binoculars to remember a time when all three programs wobbled the way the University of Louisville program is wobbling. More on that in a bit.
Athletic director Josh Heird must get the Cardinals tracking back toward No. 1 seed status the same way athletic directors at Houston, UConn and Purdue did by identifying, vetting, recruiting, hiring and supporting the right guy who can build something sustainable from the current ball of confusion at 2nd and Main streets.
The currently unanswerable question: Who is the right guy?
In 2018, Xavier coach Chris Mack lapped the field from day one. In 2022, Kenny Payne started in front and stayed in front.
Lesson One: There are no sure things.
That is the significant challenge for Heird, one that will define his tenure as the Louisville athletic director: He has to get it right the way Houston, Purdue and UConn got it right.
And they showed you can get it right without hiring the biggest, sexiest and most expensive name on everybody's wish list.
In confirming he will not employ a search firm, Heird and his staff will do the heavy lifting — the background checks on work ethic, personality quirks, recruiting skills, supporting staff personnel and ability to grind through failure.
There's no playbook for this. There's not a cookie cutter application form. Heird will have to be convinced he has the right guy, a guy that he can work with and sell to Louisville fans, who are eager to embrace a fresh voice. He'll have to know it when he sees it.
Houston, Purdue and UConn all delivered substantial turnarounds with different formulas. None of those programs hired the biggest name by spending the most money.
Houston missed the NCAA Tournament four straight seasons before it hired Sampson from an NBA assistant coaching position in 2014. The Cougars had not won an NCAA Tournament game since 1984.
To many, Sampson was considered an off-limits rogue, a guy who broke NCAA rules at Oklahoma and again at Indiana, which fired him in 2008. The NCAA put Sampson in the Show Cause penalty box for five seasons.
Sampson served his time working in the NBA. When Houston decided it was ready to move on from James Dickey in 2014, Sampson was in town working for the NBA Rockets.
He won in his second season. He made the NCAA Tournament in his fourth season. He made the Final Four in his seventh season. He'll be one of the co-favorites to win the NCAA title in his 10th season.
Houston hired Sampson because he was a proven winner as a head coach at the power conference level and because Sampson was driven to succeed after he earned a second chance.
That is not the story of Matt Painter at Purdue.
The Boilermakers hired Painter because he played for Purdue and became one of Gene Keady's favorite players.
Painter had one season of head coaching experience at Southern Illinois before he agreed to return to his alma mater and become the coach in waiting in West Lafayette, Indiana, in 2005.
He followed Keady, a Hall of Famer who was no longer doing Hall of Fame things at the end of his career. Purdue won a single NCAA Tournament game in the Keady's final five seasons. The Boilermakers lost 21 of 28 games in Keady's farewell ride.
Painter went 9-19 in his debut. Then he rolled off six straight trips to the NCAA Tournament, winning at least one game every March. He suffered a 2-season slump before moving Purdue into its current role as Big Ten heavyweight.
Painter builds his program differently than Sampson. He excels in recruiting in-state prospects and finding overlooked post players who need time and work to develop into all-Big Ten or all-American players.
Do not overlook Danny Hurley. He's already claimed one more national title than Sampson or Painter — and has positioned UConn to join the back-to-back club next month in Phoenix, Arizona, at the NCAA Final Four.
Hurley did not play at UConn. He had not won at the Power Six League level.
But Hurley was a confirmed bulldog, who fixed programs at Wagner and Rhode Island. He learned how to build and how to overcome failure. His leadership skills are razor sharp.
Yes, UConn won three NCAA titles for Jim Calhoun and then another for Kevin Ollie in 2014. Then the Huskies made one NCAA Tournament in the next four seasons and found themselves under NCAA investigation.
Enter Hurley in 2018.
Hurley made the Huskies respectable, then formidable and then fearsome. He delivered a winning season in Year 2, made the NCAA Tournament in Year 3 and cut down the nets after winning the national championship last spring in Year 5.
It required patience. Hurley lost double-figure games in 9 of his first 13 seasons as a Division I coach, 15 games or more five times. But he refined his craft, settled on his approach and built a program the Big East is chasing.
Sampson, Painter and Hurley all work from a different playbook. There is little overlap in their career paths.
But they all have shown the ability to make the kind of fixes that Josh Heird needs the next coach to make at the University of Louisville. He just needs to find the right guy, not necessarily the most expensive.
Louisville Basketball Coverage:
- WHO'S NEXT? Louisville basketball coaching search Big Board, 1.0
- CRAWFORD | By the numbers: Kenny Payne's tenure in cold, hard stats
- BOZICH | It did not work, but Kenny Payne earned his chance at Louisville
- Kenny Payne fired at Louisville after just 12 wins in 2 tumultuous seasons
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