LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- How many times have we done this drill?
There was the Great GMAC Bowl Fiasco of 2002, when John L. Smith left for Michigan State. The Bobby Petrino LSU dalliance in 2004 (and many others), which preceded his departure for the Atlanta Falcons after the Orange Bowl win in 2006.
There was the Charlie Strong Tennessee Temptation in 2012, in which he turned down the Volunteers and said, "I'm not built that way," when asked about the possibility of leaving a program that gave him his first shot at coaching. A year later, he left for Texas.
So, these Jeff Brohm Michigan rumors are nothing new, of course.
Louisville | Kentucky | Indiana | Eric Crawford
It's just that we didn't expect this to necessarily be the case when Brohm came back home three years ago. At that point, you figured, Brohm and the university and the city and the fanbase were all in it together. For better or worse, this would be the status quo moving forward.
But now, it appears, Brohm is faced with his Michigan Moment.
Brohm won 10 games and went to the ACC Championship game his first season. He won nine games a year ago and could win nine this year with a victory in the Cardinals' bowl game in Boca Raton, Florida.
But Michigan has come calling, literally, according to reports. And there has been some smoke.
So where do things stand? One source familiar with the situation described it as "serious but unlikely." Both were opinions, not certainties.
What is the issue? If Brohm didn't want to be in Louisville, he could likely have been at Penn State by now. Or in Gainesville, maybe. Or any number of the plethora of jobs that have come open.
Word came out in the fall that Louisville and Brohm were hammering out a new deal, details of which were undisclosed. No such deal has been announced, though a school source told me a week ago that it was expected during the next U of L Athletic Association Board meeting on Jan. 22.
The holdup, reportedly, isn't about salary or benefits. It's about support. About revenue share for football and NIL availability.
Michigan, meanwhile, is moving now. Pete Nakos, a College Football Insider for On3 and a trustworthy name, said Brohm has emerged as a coach of interest. Athletic director Warde Manuel told players in a meeting Monday that he would have a coach hired before New Year's.
Louisville simply can't match Michigan's resources. Or Texas'. That's not an opinion. That's math.
If you know Brohm, you know that he's not really driven by personal wealth. He may, however, be motivated by ability to win. By the new landscape of college athletics that, yes, has shifted since he arrived at Louisville.
He knew the day he came here, and he knows now, that, to achieve his goals here, he's going to have to do it with less than the programs he'll have to beat to get there. That's nothing new at Louisville. It's part of the game.
But the scales are shifting. Georgia just backed out of a home and home. Conferences going to nine-game schedules are going to make those tough nonconference games even harder to come by.
The tens of millions of dollars that separate ACC programs from the SEC and Big Ten via media rights deals are a major factor.
Now, let's be clear. Louisville spent enough money this year to get to the College Football Playoff. It had enough talent. It had some bad luck, yes, and bad injuries. It also created some bad luck. Bad penalties. Bad mistakes. Bad turnovers. Those aren't a question of money.
The difference between having those at Louisville and, say, Michigan, is that the depth available makes things different. If the "next man up" is a four-star signee or a significant portal addition, it matters.
So here we are. Louisville athletics director Josh Heird will commit everything he can to keeping Brohm, who is a coach that is where he wants to be, so long as he can be competitive.
I don't know his frustration level. He plays close-to-the-vest on a lot of these things.
I do know this. He'll need to make a call quickly. If this goes beyond a day or two past this bowl game, he'll be negatively impacting the program he's coaching right now. Having Michigan come after him does nothing to hurt his or Louisville's standing at the moment.
If he leaves, Louisville has a problem. Because if you can't make it work with Jeff Brohm, who can you make it work with?
My thoughts?
Michigan is Michigan, dysfunction and all. So, if you're Louisville, it's going to be heartstrings that hold him, because Michigan wins the money discussion. I don't have any question that, given his preference, Brohm would remain here. That's why he's still here now.
And I think, and this is just my own speculation, he'll remain. That's a tough conversation to have, to leave home again once you got back here. But like everybody here, I've seen coaches leave before. If he looks down the road in the current landscape and can't see being able to build the vision he has and the kind of winner fans want, maybe there is no happy ending.
We've been here before. I didn't think, three years in, we'd be here again. Not with this coach.
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