CRAWFORD | College football Week 4 picks against the spread

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- It's been a bumpy September for favorites. Underdogs are barking, points are stacking up, and the lines are tighter than a Jeff Brohm play sheet on 4th down.

But we keep plugging away. Last week I barely kept my head above water — 5-4 against the spread, bringing my record to 17-13 on the season — I'm back with a fresh pack of picks.

Let's take a look:

Bowling Green (+26.5) at Louisville, noon, ACC Network (O/U: 50.5)

Pick: Louisville 34, Bowling Green 10

Louisville should take a step forward coming off its bye week. The defense is solid. The offense has had two weeks to clean things up after a shaky finish vs. James Madison. But will it be enough to cover? Bowling Green has covered in its last four games against Power 4 teams and will try to slow the tempo. Whether they succeed in that will determine if this number holds.

SMU (+7) at TCU, noon, ESPN2 (O/U: 63.5)

Pick: TCU 41, SMU 34

The 104th — and final scheduled — meeting in this old Texas rivalry. Hopefully, not the last forever. SMU brings a dangerous offense and could get leading receiver Jordan Hudson (a TCU transfer) back from a shoulder injury. TCU flexed its offensive muscle in a blowout win over North Carolina in Week 1. With two playmaking QBs, this one should be fun. But TCU's defense might just be the edge.

Auburn (+7) at Oklahoma, noon, ABC (O/U: 46.5)

Pick: Oklahoma 31, Auburn 21

I was skeptical of Oklahoma early, but John Mateer and the Sooners offense is the real deal. Auburn QB Jackson Arnold, a former Oklahoma backup, adds intrigue. But the Sooners' pressure defense and home-field edge swing it for me.

South Carolina (+10) at Missouri, 7 p.m., ESPN (O/U: 48.5)

Pick: Missouri 35, South Carolina 28

What do we make of South Carolina? QB LaNorris Sellers went out last week, and the Gamecocks crumbled. I think they bounce back with a better effort, but Missouri's won seven straight at home in SEC play. They make it eight here — but 10 feels like too many points to lay.

Nevada (+9.5) at WKU, 7 p.m., ESPN+ (O/U: 54.5)

Pick: WKU 31, Nevada 21

Western Kentucky should rebound from its 45-21 loss at Toledo, especially with Nevada coming off a road loss to Middle Tennessee. The Hilltoppers have covered both games this season when favored by 8 or more. I like them to do it again.

Florida (+9.5) at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC (O/U: 50.5)

Pick: Miami 28, Florida 17

Florida's showing at LSU last week gives me pause, and Billy Napier's seat is heating up. But Miami looks strong, and while they're due for a clunker at some point, I doubt it comes under the lights at home in a national spotlight game.

Illinois (+6.5) at Indiana, 7:30 p.m., NBC (O/U: 52.5)

Pick: Indiana 31, Illinois 24

I've flipped this one more than once. Illinois won at Duke but benefited from five turnovers and 80 yards in Duke penalties. Indiana looks more explosive offensively, and QB Fernando Mendoza has settled in. Sagarin puts the spread at 8.6. With a sellout crowd and a big-stage feel, I think Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers get it done — and cover.