LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- I'm looking for the proverbial bounce-back week this Saturday. As many of you were kind enough to email me about this week, I did, in fact, pick the score of last week's Louisville-Pittsburgh game on the nose.
It went downhill from there. I picked Indiana to cover against Iowa, Penn State to cover against Oregon and Georgia to cover against Alabama. Loss, loss, loss. I picked Kentucky to cover at South Carolina. Big loss.
Thank goodness for WKU, which continues to roll. So last week I was 2-4 against the spread, bringing my season record to 25-18.
Here are this week's picks:
Kentucky (+19.5) at Georgia (over/under 48.5), noon, ABC
The pick: Georgia 34, Kentucky 13
Georgia has gone 8-7 against the spread in its 15-game winning streak over Kentucky, but has covered in just one of the past six meetings (2023). The under has hit in five of the past six meetings. Also worth remembering, Georgia is winless against the spread this season. I know Kentucky plays well against Georgia generally. But I think Georgia players have been getting their butts kicked all week after last week’s loss to Alabama, and I really don’t know how a one-dimensional Kentucky team with a young quarterback is going to stay in it.
Vanderbilt (+11.5) at Alabama (56.6), 3:30, ABC
The Pick: Alabama 38, Vanderbilt 24
It’s hard to shock the world twice. But 11.5 points is tough to pass up, even if Vanderbilt is in Tuscaloosa. This game comes down to whether you think Vanderbilt is for real, or it isn’t. I tend to think it is. Diego Pavia is, anyway. Kalen DeBoer is 16-3 against ranked teams. Against the spread, Vanderbilt has covered six in a row as a road underdog. Alabama is 7-6 ATS as a double-digit favorite under DeBoer, but 6-2 at home. They are 4-1 ATS against ranked opponents and the under has hit in its last six ACC games. My gut tells me Alabama is dialed in for this one. Sagarin has this spread at around 13. I'll take the Tide at home.
Texas (-5.5) at Florida (42.5), 3:30, ESPN
The pick: Texas 17, Florida 10
I don’t like this game and wouldn’t go close to betting it. Florida has been really bad offensively and coach Billy Napier is on the hot seat. But Arch Manning hasn’t set the world ablaze himself at Texas, and the environment in the Swamp is still elite. Florida is stout defensively, and with its back to the wall, that line makes me a bit nervous. In the end, I still can’t see Florida scoring enough to cover.
Virginia (+7) at Louisville (59.5), 3:30, ESPN2
The pick: Louisville 35, Virginia 31
CBS Sports called Louisville to cover one of its best bets of the week. In the ACC era, Louisville is only 3-8 against the spread in this series, and 2-3 ATS at home. The home team has covered the spread in each of UVA's last six games. The Cards have failed to cover in five of their past six home games, and are 0-3 ATS at home this season (some lines may differ). Expect fireworks. It comes down to this – Louisville vs. talented dual-threat quarterbacks who can read defenses is a problem. Has been for a while. Chandler Morris of Virginia is one of those guys. Louisville needs to take a step up, yet again, but home field is an edge, and if it can both build on and clean up from its second-half execution at Pittsburgh, it should get out with a win. A cover? I'm not so sure.
Miami (-4.5) at Florida State (53.5), 7:30, ABC
Miami 38, Florida State 28
This is the first ranked meeting between these teams since 2016. FSU is a legitimate offensive threat. But Miami is a legitimate national championship threat. The Hurricanes haven’t been threatened since their opener against Notre Dame. FSU’s defense is not quite up to a level to stop Carson Beck & Co., and look for the running game to assert itself too. Florida State is back in the rankings, but it’s not all the way back.
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