Temperatures have been above average for a good amount of time now, to the point where a lot of us are already getting used to the more Spring-like temperatures. We hit 73 yesterday and were 1 degree off a high temperature record! It's hard to remember though that we're just now getting into February.
Now of course, Winter technically isn't over until March 20th. We know that yes, but we're talking about winter-like temperatures, snow, etc. Our pattern over the last week has been well above average. In fact, the first 3 days of February are running 14 degrees above average in terms of average temperature. Granted, we're only 3 days in, but we have been off to a warm start!
There's more days this week with above normal temperatures and a couple of days even in the 60s, but it comes with rain and storms. Still, that is way above normal for this time of year. So are we eventually going to get cold again?
The Climate Prediction Center has our area in a slightly higher probability of seeing colder than average temperatures as we head over the next 8-14 days. Remember, our average high this time of year is in the mid 40s, so that would mean any high temperatures below that.
Another form of data that meteorologists can look at is something called analogs. This data is a little different - it takes the forecast models and looks for similar patterns that have happened before.
The 6-8 day temperature analog has us at an 75% chance of seeing colder than average temperatures. So the map below is actually telling you something like "if the models are correct, there's a 75% chance that pattern brings colder than normal air based on what has actually happened here in the past."
Now that you can understand a little bit more of what that map is showing, let's look a little further into the future. This map is valid for 9-11 days away from now, and you'll notice that is also has a similar trend, just not as confident with below average temperatures being more likely than above average, at 57%.
Again, even if we're at average then that's still chilly days in the mid 40s. Up to two weeks out from now, CIPS analogs continues to favor slightly below average temperatures continuing into the middle February. This time with a probability of around 60%, with that percentage not being as high since it is further into the future, and confidence isn't as high.
While confidence isn't incredibly high of colder than normal temperatures in our area, neither is above average. That should tell you that the next 2 weeks will probably lean toward slightly below average to near normal temperatures in our area.
So, all in all, Winter is not over for our area just yet. Model data for the first two weeks of February is starting to trend colder once again so it is something worth keeping an eye on, but not set in stone.
