Showers and storms are likely on Friday evening, but it's possible that not everyone gets hit with something. The Storm Prediction Center has put out a level 2 of 5 risk (Slight) for severe weather for the southeastern parts of our viewing area. Main threats include damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado. While most of our region isn't included in the Slight risk, much of the rest of the region is in a Marginal (level 1) risk. Storms could be strong to severe even outside the shaded area in the picture below.
Timing isn't perfect, but some storms could start popping up in the afternoon hours.Â
The storms will probably become more organized around dinnertime with severe weather possible during this time. Because of the timing of the storms, some high schools have decided to move up their football games from Friday to Thursday.
Storms likely blow through our area before midnight.Â
The low-level jet will be moving fast enough during the second half of the day to produce organized strong to severe storms if they line up with the actual timeline of the storms' movement across our area. Base criteria is roughly 40 mph, so wind speed values in the 50s are sufficient to get severe weather to happen.
The energy values aren't very high, but they tend not to be high during fall or winter severe weather events. Even values in the 200-400 j/kg range could be enough energy to help severe weather happen. Again, this energy would have to line up well with the storms' movement across Kentuckiana region to make this an organized severe weather event.
While there is some uncertainty with whether or not severe weather will happen on Friday evening, there's even more uncertainty about how much rain will fall. Models are all over the place, but most places can expect .25" to 1" of rain.
Changes to the forecast are likely in the days ahead, so keep checking back in with your WDRB weather team for the latest information.
