LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — Kentucky is expected to continue growing over the next quarter century, but new projections suggest that growth will be concentrated in a handful of regions while many rural counties continue to lose population.

The Kentucky State Data Center at the University of Louisville released updated population and household projections this week, estimating that Kentucky’s population will reach 4,840,745 people by 2050. That’s roughly 400,000 more residents than the state currently has.

Download PDF Kentucky Population and Household Projections

"We're seeing steady growth," said Matt Ruther, director of the Kentucky State Data Center and a professor at the University of Louisville. "We're not seeing the rapid growth that a lot of the South is seeing... we're also not seeing the population decline that some of the northeastern and midwestern states are seeing."

The strongest population growth is projected to occur in and around Kentucky’s major population centers, including the Louisville and Lexington metro areas, northern Kentucky and the Bowling Green region.

In the Louisville area, Oldham, Shelby and Spencer counties project some of the state's largest population increases by percentage.

In Oldham, population is projected to rise from the current projection of 70,986 residents to 90,428 in 2025. Shelby County is projected to grow from 51,243 residents to 65,915 in that same timeframe. Spencer County's population projections show an increase from 20,998 residents to 26,917.

"This is migration to and from Jefferson County," Ruther said. "The suburban counties growing are not unusual."

Despite migration from Jefferson County, the projected population increase remains steady. The projected 795,222 current residents could increase to 835,438 by 2050.

Bullitt, Hardin and several other surrounding counties project steady growth, as well.

The projections show a broad corridor of growth stretching across central Kentucky, while many counties in Eastern Kentucky and parts of Western Kentucky are expected to continue losing population.

Trimble County is the only county in the Louisville area expected to decrease in population in the next quarter-century. Projections show about 1,000 fewer residents that the current estimation.

"You have this larger old population that's not being replaced by by a younger population, and then you have some out migration of these of these working age adults," Ruthers said.

The Kentucky State Data Center develops its projections using a standard demographic model based on births, deaths and migration.

Ruther said researchers use fertility and mortality data from Kentucky’s vital statistics office and combine it with population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau to calculate migration trends.

The projections assume current demographic trends continue into the future and do not account for specific economic development projects, business investments or other local factors that could influence population growth.

The Kentucky State Data Center expects to revisit the projections after data from the 2030 Census becomes available.

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