Investors prosper and consumers pay as the Iran war exacts an uneven economic toll 6 months in
NEW YORK (AP) — Six months after the U.S. and Israel launched their war against Iran, the direst economic predictions haven't come true. There has been no worldwide recession, and oil remains well below its wartime peak. But the conflict’s toll has reached nearly every corner of the global economy. Fuel, flights, freight and fertilizer are more expensive, hitting poor countries and households especially hard. Airlines have suffered, while oil refiners, weapons manufacturers and others have benefited. The war has also strengthened the case for electric vehicles and renewable energy. And investors who resisted the urge to sell have prospered. After tumbling in March, major U.S. stock indexes rebounded to double-digit gains, buoyed partly by an artificial-intelligence boom.
Untested in court, Trump's new tariffs on Canada raise legal questions
WASHINGTON (AP) — In firing up a trade war with Canada, President Donald Trump turned to a 96-year-old statute so obscure that many trade lawyers didn’t even know it was still on the books. A week ago, Trump invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 to slap a 50% tax on $20 billion worth of Canadian imports. The move prompted dollar-for-dollar retaliation from Ottawa and strained already-tense relations between the neighbors and longtime allies. The president’s Section 338 tariff authority has never been used, let alone tested in court. So it’s unclear whether Trump’s latest Canada tariffs could survive a legal challenge, and some lawyers argue that the Depression-era law has been rendered obsolete by more recent trade laws.
Warsh raises stakes for Fed's next meeting and other takeaways from Jackson Hole conference
WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh provided his most detailed insights yet on how he views the central bank's fight against inflation in a high-profile speech an at annual economic conference in Jackson Hole Friday. In saying that he hasn't seen evidence that inflation is cooling, Warsh put more pressure on the Fed to increase interest rates when it next meets in mid-September. It's unclear if the Fed does hike short-term rates soon whether long-term rates would follow and lead to higher borrowing costs for consumers. Warsh also reiterated his belief that artificial intelligence has the ability to make the economy more efficient.
Olivia Rodrigo's festival is uniting women and girls behind nonprofits promoting their well-being
Olivia Rodrigo is fundraising for women's well-being with a benefit show geared toward her young audience. The Daisy Chain Fields festival boasts a lineup that includes Chappell Roan, Doechii and Bikini Kill. The artists, nearly all women, are performing for free. The net proceeds are benefiting 10 nonprofits that advance women's health, workplace protections and legal rights. Attendees are invited to learn about the organizations' work at booths inside the festival. Rodrigo has already shared ahead of the festival that $10 million will be donated to the 10 nonprofit partners. She says the festival's name is a “reminder of how individual parts can come together to create something strong and unbreakable.”
What we know about Trump's deal giving US access to vast oil reserves in Venezuela
WASHINGTON (AP) — There's a lot that's not immediately clear about President Donald Trump's deal giving the United States a stake in Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. He's calling it the biggest oil deal ever. Venezuela’s acting president describes it as a step toward economic recovery that will modernize the country’s oil industry. No text of any agreement has been released. It's not publicly known how soon the reserves could be drilled and who will pay to make it happen. Experts have said Venezuela’s dilapidated oil infrastructure will take years and billions of dollars to repair. So a substantial boost in production isn't expected to come soon.
Fed Chair Warsh signals rate hikes may be needed with US inflation stubbornly elevated
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (AP) — Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh says inflation is still too high and suggested the central bank may have to raise interest rates in the coming months to bring it down, a clearer signal than he has sent before about his economic outlook. In his first high-profile speech at the Fed’s annual conference at Jackson Hole, Warsh acknowledged in prepared remarks Friday that recent inflation reports show it has cooled a bit, but “they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”
The bond market prepares for a hike to interest rates, while US stocks drift lower
NEW YORK (AP) — The bond market swung as investors built bets that the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates soon to get the nation’s high inflation under control. U.S. stocks, meanwhile, dipped Friday but not by much after economists said a speech by Chairman Kevin Warsh helped strengthen faith that the Fed will do what’s needed to bring inflation down, even if it causes pain for the economy in the short term. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% after flipping between modest gains and losses through the morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped by less than 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.5%.
Trump says US has entered deal with Venezuela to take control of 65 billion barrels of oil reserves
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump says his administration has entered a sweeping agreement with Venezuela that, if realized, could give the U.S. access to vast amounts of the South American country’s untapped oil reserves, at cost. Trump said in a social media post Friday that the agreement was negotiated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodríguez. The president calls it "THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY!” Rodríguez’s government says the deal involves the development of 17 fields with a proven potential of 65 billion barrels. It says it could draw $100 billion in investment into Venezuela’s oil industry,
Europe's summer drought threatens fish in rivers, lakes and farms
NOVI SAD, Serbia (AP) — Extreme drought and heat have severely impacted the Danube River and surrounding regions. Fishermen in northern Serbia report that the river has receded, leaving only small ponds with dangerously high water temperatures. The drought has affected ecosystems and businesses across several countries, including Hungary, Romania, and Bosnia. Hungary faces severe drought conditions, with significant fish pond losses. Romanian fish farmers struggle with ongoing drought effects, while Czech farmers take emergency measures. In Bosnia, trout farms are barely surviving. Slovenia is pumping water into lakes to save fish. Countries are now considering ways to mitigate future climate-related impacts.
Iran scrambles to sustain trade as US threatens to sanction countries that refuse to break ties
BEIRUT (AP) — Iran's economy is poised for more instability as the Trump administration tries to coerce other countries into ending all financial dealings with the Islamic Republic. A decision by the United Arab Emirates to suspend trade relations with Iran last week kick-started the White House’s latest attempt to isolate Tehran into submission. Iran has few other major trade partners to turn to now. China is the most capable of hindering the U.S. strategy. Russia has a military conflict of its own and probably can’t offer a fellow target of international sanctions much hard financial support. Turkey, Pakistan and Iraq maintain important relationships with both Iran and the U.S. and have reasons to avoid antagonizing Washington.
