Study: Kentucky would have reached estimated 44,482 COVID-19 cases by April 25 without imposed social distancing restrictions

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — Kentucky would have reached an estimated 44,482 COVID-19 cases by April 25 had the state not started government-imposed social distancing restrictions in mid-March, according to a study conducted by the University of Kentucky.

Using what's called and "event-study model," which links the adoption of social distancing measures to the growth rate of COVID-19 cases, the Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise at UK estimates around 2,000 lives have been saved by the government-imposed guidelines.

"Our event-study model – focused on the Midwest and South – strongly rebuts the idea that social distancing policies are ineffective or irrelevant," the study says.

The study also compared the timing of Kentucky's policies with neighboring states and counties.

"It's not fair to compare Kentucky with New York City, right? But it is very fair to compare with Tennessee and Indiana," said Daniel Di Martino, a research associate at UK's Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise.

The study also found "no evidence that school closures and bans of moderate-sized events have any effect at all on the growth rate of COVID-19 cases unless accompanied by broader shelter-in-place directives such as Kentucky’s 'Healthy at Home' initiative."

"While such findings may appear paradoxical, they are consistent with the economic concept of substitution," the study says. "Certainly COVID-19 can spread at schools and group events, but that does not imply that closing/banning them slows the spread. The effect depends on what individuals do in the absence of these activities."

As of Wednesday, Kentucky had at least 4,539 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 and 235 deaths linked to the respiratory disease, according to Gov. Andy Beshear.

To read the study in full, click here.