John Calipari

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — In most markets the howling about making the NCAA men's basketball tournament begins in March.

This isn't most college basketball markets.

Never has been. Never will be. The howling about the NCAA Tournament outlook for John Calipari's sagging University of Kentucky team whipped into overdrive Tuesday night.

That will happen when Kentucky loses to a team that lost to East Carolina, Colorado State, Furman, George Washington, Martha Washington and Denzel Washington.

That team was South Carolina. Three days after the Gamecocks lost to Tennessee by 43 and seven days after they were defeated at Vanderbilt by 5, they bounced into Rupp Arena and handled Kentucky, 71-68.

It's 60 days until Selection Sunday. Here are 5 alarming numbers about Kentucky's NCAA Tournament outlook in 2023.

1. After the South Carolina loss, the Wildcats slid from No. 46 to 62 in the NCAA NET rankings, a computer formula that the Tournament Selection Committee will consider as it selects and then seeds the 68-team field.

Vanderbilt finished last season No. 62 in the NET rankings. The Commodores were 19-17. They participated in the National Invitation Tournament, winning a pair of games before losing to Xavier.

My advice: Don't finish the season No. 62 in NET.

2. When March approaches, the Bracket Matrix should become one of your favorite one-stop shops to forecast the 2023 field.

On Wednesday morning, Kentucky was listed with Northwestern, Memphis, Clemson, Pittsburgh and Arizona State, six contenders for the final four at-large spots in the 68-team field.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi put the Wildcats seven spots above the cut line as one of the last four teams with a bye — but that was Tuesday morning before the South Carolina loss. In a Tweet Lunardi shared Wednesday morning, Lunardi removed Calipari's team from the field.

3. The Wildcats dropped to No. 44 in Ken Pomeroy's computer power formula. They were ranked No. 1 at the beginning of the season.

Kentucky fell 19 spots after the South Carolina defeat, their largest one-day drop this season.

According to the data at KenPom.com, the Wildcats have slid from No. 1 to 2 to 4 to 5 to 6 to 8 to 10 to 13 to 14 to 16 to 25 to 44. They have yet to rise after any of their 16 games.

Pomeroy's latest forecast has the Wildcats finishing 17-14 overall and 8-10 in the Southeastern Conference. That would be ninth place.

4. Kentucky has tumbled from No. 8 to No. 79 in Bart Torvik's computer power formula.

His forecast shows a final record of 16-15 overall, 7-11 in the SEC. Torvik shows Kentucky losing to Tennessee, 74-55, Saturday in Knoxville.

In the numbers posted at Torvik's site Wednesday morning, the Wildcats are 21 spots behind Rick Pitino and Iona, 16 behind Sam Houston State and seven behind Marshall.

5. Jeff Sagarin was one of the earliest developers of a college basketball computer power formula.

Members of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee began asking for his numbers four decades ago. Sagarin's predictor formula, which takes into account margin of victory, are generally predictive of the point spreads that will be posted for games.

Sagarin's Wednesday morning numbers were the most encouraging for Kentucky. The Wildcats were No. 30 nationally in Sagarin's predictor formula, one spot behind San Diego State, and just ahead of Maryland, Oklahoma State and West Virginia.

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