Chucky Hepburn

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Notes written while shredding my preseason predictions after one night of the college basketball season:

*Pat Kelsey encouraged University of Louisville men's basketball fans to pack the KFC Yum! Center on Saturday at noon when the Cardinals host coach Rick Barnes and the No. 12 Tennessee Volunteers.

Kelsey said the energy of the crowd fueled his players during the Cards' opening night 93-45 win over Morehead State and could do it again Saturday. He said that he expected to look into the upper arena and see more rear ends in seats.

Here is one thing that Kelsey did not say, but I will say:

The analytics formulas say Saturday's game is essentially a toss up.

One of the first things I did Tuesday morning was check the numbers from Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik and Erik Haslam, three long-time computer power formulas.

Here are the projected Saturday results:

  • KenPom has it Tennessee 76, Louisville 75, giving the Cards a win probability of 46%.
  • Torvik has it UT 79, U of L 77, putting the Cards win probability at 42%.
  • Haslemetrics is the least convinced of Louisville's improvement, projecting Tennessee to win, 81-73.

Tennessee won its opener at home over Gardner-Webb, 80-64, Monday night. The Vols led by 27 with less than 10 minutes to play.

IMAGES | Scenes from Pat Kelsey’s first regular-season win as Louisville coach

Point guard Zakai Ziegler had 13 points and nine assists but missed all six of his three-point attempts and had four turnovers. Chaz Lanier, a transfer from North Florida, led UT in scoring with 18 points, making four shots from distance. Dalton Knecht, UT's primary dude last season, plays with LeBron James and the Lakers.

Kelsey did not have to agree to schedule this game. Not on the first Saturday of the season. But he did. And he appeared eager to learn more about his squad by testing the Cards against a program that won the Southeastern Conference regular season title and advanced to the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight last March.

"Josh (Heird, the Cards' athletic director) and Brian (Kloman, an assistant coach in charge of scheduling) came to me and said 'Game two: Tennessee,'" Kelsey said Monday night.

"I'm like, 'Tennessee, game two?'

"Josh said, 'I'm telling you, PK, do the game. Let's play it. The city will show up. The place will be packed. It's going to be rocking.'

"So Josh promised me the place will be rocking and almost packed. You guys got to have Josh's back, and let's have 20,000 people at the Yum on Saturday.

"We play a great team, phenomenal and well-coached with an All-American point guard (Ziegler). It's like Noah's Ark. They have two of everything, and we're going to need the White Out. We're going to need the sixth man. And I know the Louisville fan base and the city of Louisville will step up. Let's make Saturday really, really special."

*Louisville gained eight spots in the Pomeroy rankings, jumping from No. 64 to 56.

The highest the Cards were ranked by Pomeroy last season was No. 109 in the season opener. They finished at No. 185.

Two seasons ago, Louisville started at No. 91 and finished at No. 290.

The last time Louisville ranked as high as No. 56 in Pomeroy was Jan. 5, 2022, when they improved to 4-0 in the Atlantic Coast Conference by defeating Pittsburgh.

*After handling Wright State, 103-62, Kentucky also climbed eight spots in Pomeroy, advancing from No. 43 to No. 35. UK finished last season ranked No. 23.

If you're looking ahead to Kentucky's key non-league games (and why wouldn't you be?), Pomeroy forecasts these scores:

  • Duke 81, UK 74, next Tuesday in Atlanta.
  • UK 88, Western Kentucky 72, on Nov. 26 in Rupp Arena.
  • Clemson 80, UK 75, on Dec. 3, a road game in the SEC/ACC Challenge.
  • Gonzaga 86, UK 77 on Dec. 7, in Seattle.

And, of course, UK 82, U of L 76, on Dec. 14 in Lexington.,

*Yes, that was Scott Drew, the coach who turned down the Louisville and Kentucky jobs last spring, whose Baylor team was shredded, 101-63, by Gonzaga Monday night.

*Seven former U of L players started at their new programs Monday night — and all seven played on winning teams.

Only two — Skyy Clark at UCLA and Tre White of Illinois — started.

But the guys who put up the best numbers were Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and Hercy Miller. Huntley-Hatfield had 13 points and four rebounds as North Carolina State handled USC-Upstate, 97-66. Miller scored 12 points, making a pair of threes, as Southern Utah defeated Western New Mexico, 96-68.

Four former Cards did not get in the game: Mike James at North Carolina State, Emmanuel Okorafor at Seton Hall, Danilo Jovanovich at Milwaukee and Dennis Evans at Grand Canyon. James suffered a knee injury and is scheduled to miss several weeks.

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