LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- No more time to hide in the weight room. No reason to hype team-building exercises. No more obsessing about the preseason magazines or media day predictions.

Western Kentucky kicks off the local FBS version of the college football season Thursday night, followed by Kentucky and Indiana on Saturday afternoon, followed by Kirk Herbstreit, Chris Fowler, Maria Taylor and the ESPN cameras visiting Cardinal Stadium for Scott Satterfield’s debut as the Louisville coach Monday night.

That pleases the Monday Muse.

1. Louisville Improvement: What’s Reasonable?

The wise guys are not expecting much from U of L this season. Neither is at least one computer formula.

If you wager on the Cardinals, you have to decide if you believe they’re going to win more than three games, because the over/under total is 3.5.

Kansas, Oregon State and Rutgers are the only Power Five programs with tinier expectations.

What is a reasonable win total to expect from the Louisville football team this season?

You voted:

ESPN’s Power Index Formula suggests you should take the OVER. The FPI forecasts 4.4 wins for Satterfield and friends.

Here some numbers to consider: Four of the Cards’ last seven new football coaches showed an improvement during their first seasons.

John L. Smith won six more games than the single game Ron Cooper won before Tom Jurich fired him in 1997.

Charlie Strong took over a four-win team left by Steve Kragthorpe and went 7-6. Bobby Petrino was a two-game improvement over Smith. Cooper actually won one more game than Howard Schnellenberger’s 1994.

The other three? Schnellenberger’s first team won twice, the same as Bob Weber. Kragthorpe brought a six-win decline from Petrino 1.0. Petrino 2.0 delivered a three-win drop from Strong’s final team.

Smith and Strong took over teams that struggled nearly as much as Louisville struggled while winning twice last season. But those teams did not open against Notre Dame and compete in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Here are a few more numbers after looking at first-year coaches in 2018 and 2017, Power Five-level only.

Last season, there were a dozen new guys. Five showed improvement. Five regressed. Two repeated the win total of the previous season.

Programs that struggled in 2017 struggled in 2018. Arkansas slipped from four wins to two. Tennessee moved from four wins to five. Nebraska remained stuck at four wins. UCLA, even with Chip Kelly, slid from six wins to three. Oregon State jumped from one win to two.

The 2017 numbers were similar. Four first-year guys showed improvement. Three regressed. One repeated the 2016 win total.

The Power Five guy who showed the greatest first-year improvement was Jeff Brohm, who upgraded Purdue from three victories to seven.

My take: A reasonable expectation for Satterfield in his first season is three wins. Maybe four.

As I wrote Friday, if Louisville wins six games, the guy will deserve a parade.

2. ACC Power Rankings

What are the national folks thinking about the U of L football team?

I’ve yet to find anybody with the courage to pick the Cardinals as high as sixth in the Atlantic Coast Conference Atlantic Division.

That includes Nick Bromberg of Yahoo! Sports, who ranked Louisville 14th in the league, one spot ahead of Georgia Tech.

Reminder: A year ago, Bromberg picked Syracuse 14th, Virginia 13th and Louisville eighth. Syracuse finished 10-3, Virginia 8-5 and Louisville 2-10.

3. SEC Power Rankings

Plenty of Hater/Bulletin Board Material for Mark Stoops and Kentucky, too. Not only has the point spread for the Wildcats’ season opener with Toledo slipped to 11 1/2, Yahoo! says the Wildcats are the 11th-best team in the Southeastern Conference and the sixth-best team in the SEC East.

Here is the link to the story.

The Wildcats are ranked behind six SEC teams on their schedule and ahead of two: No. 12 Vanderbilt and No. 14 Arkansas.

Yahoo! has Florida at No. 4, behind Alabama, Georgia and LSU, a take I hope was filed before the Gators blasted Miami, 24-20, Saturday night.

4. Big Ten Power Ratings

Another preview, another diss of a local football program — and this is a program that takes shots every August and September.

That would be Indiana, which (surprisingly) opens its 2019 season as a 17-point favorite against Ball State at noon Saturday in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Yahoo! is not as gaga about Tom Allen’s team. The Hoosiers are ranked No. 11, ahead of Rutgers, Illinois and Maryland. That’s generally where the national forecasters have IU.

Here is the story link.

The surprising news is that Brohm’s third Purdue squad is forecast to finish 10th. The Boilermakers have a strange opener: Friday night at Nevada. Las Vegas favors Purdue by 10. 

5. Welcome Back, Forde-Yard Dash

Nothing signals that college football has returned louder than the return of the Forde-Yard Dash, crafted with wit, information and analysis by Friend of the Muse, Pat Forde.

His season-opening dash touches on a collection of interesting topics, including his playoff picks, six weird predictions and some love for former Louisville punching bag, Cincinnati.

You can read — and bookmark — Mr. Forde’s work at this link.

6. Mick Cronin Goes to Hollywood

The most interesting college basketball coaching move of the off-season is the most overlooked coaching move of many seasons.

Mick Cronin was likely the fourth or fifth or even sixth choice to become the next coach at John Wooden University, but after John Calipari, Tony Bennett, Jamie Dixon, Rick Barnes and likely others declined the job, Cronin got the call and rushed to Westwood from Cincinnati.

Early reviews of the work put in by Rick Pitino’s former assistant coach have been encouraging, especially the commitment UCLA received from the top point guard in the Class of 2020 last week.

Rob Dauster has a solid look at what Cronin has tried to do while establishing his Lunch Pail Culture at UCLA.

7. Don’t Call Me, Russ

NBA players will report to camp in about a month. Nobody will predict big things from Billy Donovan and Oklahoma City. The Thunder will move on with draft picks from the Russell Westbrook Era.

But Donovan might be happier with his new point guard. Former Kentucky guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be less likely to score 50 but more likely to involve his teammates, defend and listen to coaching.

Gilgeous-Alexander made a terrific first impression when he played here in the Derby Festival Classic and then enhanced his profile by running Calipari’s 2018 team.

He’s a smart kid who will become a fan favorite in OKC. He’s wise enough to go into the season by telling fans that he is NOT Russell Westbrook.

That’s a good move — and a good thing.

8. Fixing Baseball (part of an ongoing series)

Baseball fans love to grouse. Trust me. I’m one of them. A fan. And a grouser.

Pace of play. Too many home runs and strikeouts. Free-agency system. Players’ Weekend uniforms. That’s the starter set.

Even people who adore the game and are dialed in for 162 days/nights per season are concerned about the dip in attendance and national TV ratings.

A legitimate summit of the game’s top thinkers for a brain-storming session would be healthy. Find ways to attract younger fans, especially in areas that don’t have big-league teams.

Matt Vasgergian, the voice of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball, sounds like a guy willing to contribute. He shared three ideas for baseball to consider in this story in the Los Angeles Times.

I won’t share all three. You need to read the story. But one concerns dividing the season into halves to restore competitive balance, discourage teams from tanking and bring more energy to the regular season.

9. MLB Power Ratings

1. New York Yankees — It’s been a decade since the Bombers won the World Series. That’s 714 in Pinstripe Years.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers — Clayton Kershaw couldn’t handle the Yankees.

3. Houston Astros — Still waiting for this group to get totally hot and healthy.

4. Atlanta Braves — Don’t tug on Josh Donaldson’s cape.

5. Washington Nationals — Who needs Bryce Harper?

10. Tweet of the Week

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