Emoni Bates
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LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- I interrupt preparations for Kentucky Derby 148 to consider the question seven people asked me Wednesday morning at Churchill Downs:

Is it safe to put $5 on Emoni Bates committing to the University of Louisville?

I'm not ready to say that. But I wouldn't put $2 on another school.

Has Bates decided that working with Kenny Payne and his University of Louisville men's basketball staff is the perfect place to rebuild his sagging reputation as the one of the elite prospects in the country?

I’ll put it this way:

I believe there is a better chance Bates will play for the Cards than there is that Zandon wins the Derby — and I realize Zandon is the 3-1 favorite.

I don’t own a recruiting Crystal Ball ball or even a Ouija board. Payne has a non-negotiable rule against discussing recruiting. He’s more secretive than the CIA.

Nobody rushes Payne. He moves at a deliberate pace, as we learned when he put his staff together. We also learned that relationships matter to Payne. He wants guys who will respond to his coaching, especially in his first recruiting class. First impressions matter.

But there is plenty of chatter and evidence that Louisville is closing furiously in the recruiting race, including its position with Bates.

Payne has already landed Brandon Huntley-Hatfield of Tennessee from the transfer portal. Devin Ree, a four-star wing from Oak Hill Academy, picked Louisville after de-committing from Louisiana State.

Payne and his staff held the commitment the previous U of L staff earned from forward Kamari Lands. Payne talked extensively with every member of last season’s team, trying to build a clear picture of why the Cards’ 2022 season went sideways.

If you study the Cards’ roster, it’s obvious that Payne — as well as assistants Nolan Smith, Danny Manning and Josh Jamieson — are not finished.

The Cards need backcourt personnel, another point guard to team with El Ellis as well as another shooting guard.

Names like Tyrese Hunter, a point guard from Iowa State, and Malachi Smith, a transfer from Chattanooga who is also considering a jump to the NBA, are players who have been connected to Louisville.

They’re talented, guys who could help Louisville build back from the 13-19 mess created last season. But they’re not Bates, who was ranked the top prospect in the class of 2022 before he decided to skip his senior high school season and struggled through a year with Penny Hardaway in Memphis.

Struggle is the correct word. Bates played in 18 of 33 Memphis games, starting 13 times. He finished with nearly twice as many turnovers (43) as assists (22), while averaging 9.7 points and making less than 40% of his field goal attempts. He looked like a guy who did not turn 18 years old until Jan. 28.

For months, Memphis played like a team with more ego than grit. The Tigers were beaten by Georgia, Ole Miss and East Carolina before they rallied to win 12 of 13 games and make the NCAA Tournament.

Bates missed all but two games during the winning streak because of back injury. He returned for minor minutes in the two games Memphis played in the NCAA Tournament, earning three minutes in a victory over Boise State and 12 minutes and five points in the Tigers’ season-ending loss to Gonzaga.

Memphis was not the spot for Bates to reach his dream of playing in the NBA. Some said Bates was immature and had too many outside influences. Others argued Hardaway lost control of a locker room that had a split between holdover players and newcomers.

As Bates searched for a place to hit the re-set button, he announced a final six of U of L, Arkansas, DePaul, Seton Hall, Eastern Michigan and Michigan (although the Wolverines are reportedly not interested).

At 247Sports, five recruiting gurus have filed predictions on where Bates will land after leaving Memphis. All five picked Louisville, including one insider from Duke, another insider from Michigan State as well as Travis Branham, a national recruiting analyst for the recruiting web site.

There’s more. Joe Tipton of On3 Sports has a direct connection to many elite prospects. Players trust Tipton because he built relationships by developing social media graphics for high school players as they worked their way through the recruiting process.

This is what Bates told Tipton about the idea of playing for Payne at Louisville:

"I’ve known (Payne) since I was in seventh grade. I took a visit to Kentucky when I was a kid, and me and him had a bond and we were always really close. KP is someone I would really love to learn from.”

The recruiting gurus are talking like this is going to happen in the next two minutes and change. I’m not convinced it will be that quick, but Payne and his staff are closing fast in the recruiting derby.

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