BOZICH | Picking Kentucky Derby 151 winner — Part I | Sports

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- I like to tell people I haven't picked the winner of the Kentucky Derby since Sunday Silence shocked Easy Goer and the horse racing world.

That was 1989. It's been a minute.

That is also not accurate. I believe I scored at least one other time in what is quickly becoming three decades. That horse was Orb. That year was 2013.

It's easier to make light of my handicapping skills by referencing Sunday Silence, who remains my all-time favorite Derby horse because of my admiration for trainer Charlie Whittingham and owner Arthur B. Hancock III. What a fantastic ride Sunday Silence gave them.

Kentucky Derby 151 | Derby Prep Races | Derby Festival Events

But this year, as we prepare to celebrate Kentucky Derby 151 on Saturday at Churchill Downs, my plan is to assist you in picking the winner of the mile-and-a-quarter mystery.

For the last week, I have pursued informed horsemen whose opinions I value. I asked them to handicap the race. I will share their insights here at WDRB.com this week.

I begin with an observer who asked to remain anonymous. He's been in the game for decades. He knows the trainers, the jockeys, the racetrack officials, the pedigrees, the prep races, the works. He's been to all but three Derbies since 1964. The last winner he picked was ... Mage, a 15-to-1 shot who won the race two years ago.

He's been at Churchill nearly every morning watching the horses work on the track. He's visited the barns and talked to multiple trainers.

But, most of all, he knows the look of a Kentucky Derby winner.

I asked him which horse looked like a Derby winner in this group.

"Sovereignty," he said, without hesitation.

That is the colt trained by Bill Mott. He is likely to be the second betting choice behind morning line favorite Journalism on Saturday.

Sovereignty won a Grade III stakes race (the Street Sense) at Churchill Downs last October. A winning performance over the Derby surface is generally considered an excellent credential.

The colt began his 3-year-old campaign with a score in the Fountain of Youth in Florida on March 1, but only by a neck at Gulfstream Park.

In his last race the colt finished second, by 1 1/4 lengths, to Tappan Street, in the Florida Derby.

"That doesn't worry me," my handicapper said. "Look at the way he finished the race."

Sovereignty finished that race with gusto. With three-eighths of a mile to run, he was fifth, four lengths behind the leader. At the wire, he was second. The Florida Derby is 1 1/8 miles. The Kentucky Derby asks the field to run another eighth, a distance that no 3-year-old has covered.

My handicapper is convinced Sovereignty will benefit from that extra distance. He believes he was tested by the competition in Florida.

He believes that Mott, the colt's trainer, is the best in the game. Mott does not traffic in hyperbole. I can testify to that. Around Barn 19, Mott's eyes dance when he talks about this colt. Mott has the look of a man who knows he has a very talented horse.

"What matters in the Kentucky Derby is 'How fast can a horse run the final three-eighths of a mile?' " my guy said. "Can he run those final eights in 12 seconds or less?"

He believes that Mott has trained Sovereignty to achieve that.

I'll divert from the winner to 10 horses that my handicapper will not pick to succeed, starting from the first post position and then moving away from the rail:

Citizen Bull, Neoequos, Final Gambit, Luxor Cafe, Grande, Flying Mohawk, East Avenue, Render Judgment, Sandman and Owen Almighty.

(WARNING: Rich Strike would have been in this discard piled in 2022.)

That leaves nine horses.

He likes the favorite (Journalism) and believes he can win the race. But my guy made a note that California racing has not been strong as the competition in Florida this spring and Journalism's last three wins have come in five-horse fields.

On Saturday the field will be 5 times 4.

Looking for a horse who will be a dazzling price? Isn't everybody?

My guy suggested Coal Battle, who started at 30-1 in the morning line.

Why? Coal Battle sagged over the final eighth-mile, slipping from a length back in second place to seven lengths behind the winner in third at the wire in the Arkansas Derby.

My guy has tremendous respect for trainer Lonnie Bailey. He believes the horse is training well, thriving on the Churchill surface. And he noted that Coal Battle took a four-race winning streak into the Arkansas Derby.

He also has his eyes on at least two other horses — certainly Publisher and Burnham Square.

Burnham Square ran like a horse who could get the distance by roaring from last to first while winning the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland April 8. He passed three horses in the final eighth.

Publisher is trained by Steve Asmussen. Nobody has won more races at Churchill Downs than Asmussen. He's a Hall of Famer.

Of course, nobody has a longer losing streak in the Derby. Asmussen is 0 for 26 — and he will tell you that includes losing the race with two colts (Curlin and Gun Runner) who were later voted Horse of the Year.

"Steve is a terrific trainer," my handicapper said. "He's overdue. It would be a great story."

Especially if you pick him. But my guy says go with Sovereignty.