LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — From 16 to 12 to 8 to 6 to 4 to 2 to 1.
Only six days of games remain in the men’s college basketball season, beginning Thursday night with action from the West Regional in San Francisco and the South Regional in San Antonio.
This could be Mike Krzyzewski’s final game as the head coach at Duke. This could be another befuddling Gonzaga exit short of a national title. This could be Jay Wright of Villanova taking the next step toward confirming himself as the game’s best coach as Coach K retires.
The best team does not always win the title. A safer bet is the team that plays the best and takes advantage as upsets ensure the bracket breaks in their favor.
With that in mind, I ranked the final 16 national championship contenders in order of their chances to win four more games.
16. Saint Peter’s
Their Edge: The Peacocks fear nobody. They’ve already secured their spot as The Story of the tournament. They proved they could rebound with Kentucky and Murray State. They should have a home crowd advantage in Philadelphia.
Their Issue: Talent eventually prevails. A No. 15 or 15 seed has never made the Elite Eight. They’re not great at the foul line. They don’t have anybody as talented as Purdue’s Jaden Ivey, Zach Edey or Trevion Williams.
15. Iowa State
Their Edge: The Cyclones have proven everybody wrong all season. They’re a Top 5 defensive team that has a win over another Sweet Sixteen team — Texas Tech.
Their Issue: They’ve only scored more than 54 points once in their last five games. They shoot less than 32 percent from distance. That’s not cut down the nets offense.
14. Miami
Their Edge: They have a pair of sixth-year players and a coach (Jim Larranaga) who took George Mason to the Final Four. They only have to beat Iowa State to get to the Elite Eight. They have committed seven turnovers in two tournament games.
Their Issue: They’re dependent upon three-point shooting and they’re the worst offensive rebounding team still playing. When they played in the KFC Yum! Center and beat Louisville by seven, nothing screamed, “Bet Miami to win it all.”
13. Michigan
Their Edge: They have a pair of 5-star freshmen (Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate) who have found their groove and a feisty big man (Hunter Dickinson) who can make 3-point shots.
Their Issue: They have not won three games in a row since Jan. 26 — and that’s the only time the Wolverines won three straight all season
12. North Carolina
Their Edge: They beat Duke at Cameron and took out top-seed Baylor. The Tar Heels have four starters who could go off for 20 points any night.
Their Issue: There isn’t much depth and their opponents are making better than 34 percent of their shots from distance. Sometimes they simply don’t defend.
11. Providence
Their Edge: People forget that the Friars, not Villanova, won the Big East regular season title. They’re a gritty group that plays with a chip.
Their Issue: They’re still ranked first in the Luck factor at Ken Pomeroy’s basketball analytics site, 12-2 in games decided by 5 points or less or in overtime. They don’t rank in the Top 30 in offensive or defensive efficiency.
10. Arkansas
Their Edge: Hard-nosed team that feasts at the foul line and has a player (JD Notae) capable of getting 30.
Their Issue: At 30.5%, the Razorbacks are the worst 3-point shooting team still playing.
9. Texas Tech
Their Edge: The Red Raiders rank first in KenPom’s defensive efficiency, limiting opponents to 31.4% on 3-points attempts and 44% on 2-point attempts. They’ll knock you around, which should be an edge against the Duke freshmen.
Their Issue: They turn the ball over on 20 percent of their possessions and aren’t a great shooting team.
8. UCLA
Their Edge: Showed they could grind their way to the Final Four last season and the Bruins are one of four teams that rank in the Top 20 in KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency.
Their Issue: Forward Jaime Jacquez battled ankle injuries all season and he appeared to suffer a high ankle sprain late in the Bruins’ second-round win over Saint Mary’s. He is expected to play but it’s reasonable to wonder how effective Jacquez will be.
7. Houston
Their Edge: Ferocious rebounding and defensive team that plays without fear, winning its last five games by at least 13 points. The Cougars embarrassed Illinois.
Their Issue: Getting past Arizona and Villanova to get to New Orleans (site of the 2022 Final Four) is a big ask.
6. Duke
Their Edge: The Blue Devils have at least three and perhaps four first-round draft picks and have already beaten three Sweet Sixteen teams, including Gonzaga.
Their Issue: The Blue Devils also lost to North Carolina and Miami because there are nights Duke’s defense is not Final Four worthy. Also a team without dynamite depth. Think they’re feeling any pressure to get Coach K to the Final Four?
5. Villanova
Their Edge: The Wildcats are primed to set an NCAA record for best free throw percentage. They’re at 82.6 percent and have guys who can stroke it at every position, making better than 36 percent of their shots from distance.
Their Issue: They’re not a great rebounding team and will have to take out Arizona or Houston to get to the Final Four.
4. Arizona
Their Edge: Some insiders say the Wildcats are the longest, most athletic team in the nation, and they have not lost since Feb. 26.
Their Issue: Beating Houston and Villanova in a regional is a Final Four worthy assignment.
3. Purdue
Their Edge: Saint Peter’s is a wonderful story but there is not a coach in the country who would complain about playing a No. 15 seed in a Sweet Sixteen game. Purdue could get to New Orleans without playing the No. 1 or 2 seed in the East Regional.
Their Issue: The Boilermakers’ defensive numbers sit well outside the profile of a serious national title contender and Jaden Ivey sometimes gets careless with the ball.
2. Gonzaga
Their Edge: The Zags force you to play at their tempo and can beat you with scorers at all five positions. Drew Timme took it up a notch last weekend.
Their Issue: They looked vulnerable against Memphis and the Mark Few’s NCAA history is finding a way to fall short.
1. Kansas
Their Edge: The Jayhawks have the only first-team all-American still playing in Ochai Agbaji. Phog Allen couldn’t have scripted a clearer path than a regional with Providence, Iowa State and Miami.
Their Issue: Few does not have any titles in 21 tournament appearances. Self has one title in 22 shots because Memphis choked at the free throw line in 2008 and Mario Chalmers threw in a miracle shot.
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