LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WRRB) -- We are three days from posting our weekly Against The Spread numbers for Week 6 of the college football season. I have three prop bets that could not wait until Friday:
- Wager No. 1: Over/under on the percentage of head coaches at the 64 FBS Power 5 schools who have been on the job-less than two full seasons?
- I'll put the number at 40%.
Wager No. 2: Over/under on the millions of dollars already committed in buyout cash to coaches who have been fired several weeks before the mid-way point of the 2022 season? - I'll put that number at $55 million.
- Wager No. 3: Scott Frost (Nebraska) was followed by Herm Edwards (Arizona State) who was followed by Geoff Collins (Georgia Tech) who was followed by Karl Dorrell (Colorado) who was followed by Paul Chryst (Wisconsin) on the 2022 college football chopping block. How many more head coaches will turn in their courtesy Range Rovers next weekend?
- I'll put the number at 1 1/2.
Moe, Larry and Curly have taken over college football.
The folks in the student section are not the only ones painting their faces. The people in the administration offices are dressing up like clowns, too, throwing around money like they can print it on that laser jet in the corner office.
Apparently, they can. According to my calculation, Nebraska, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Colorado and Wisconsin have already committed an estimated $56 million for guys to NOT coach their teams over the second half of the season.
I say estimated because Wisconsin Athletic Director Chris McIntosh claimed that he negotiated a buyout "significantly less" than the reported $16 million Chryst was owed on the deal that he earned for winning three Big Ten West titles and two Big Ten coach of the year awards at Camp Delusional Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin.
I bumped Chryst's buyout figure down to $10 million and then added it to Frost's $15 million, Edwards $8.3 million, Collins $11.4 million and Dorrell's $11.4 million.
That gets you to a shade beyond $56 million.
So, I hope you took the over.
Add those five schools to the dozen Power 5 schools that changed coaches last season as well as the nine others that made moves in 2020.
There are 64 jobs in the Atlantic Coast, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 and Southeastern conferences. Precisely 26 — or 40.6% — have turned over since the COVID-19-interrupted season of 2020. Apparently a year without spectators did not create as many financial hardships for Power 5 programs as has previously been reported.
So I hope you also took the Over on Question No. 1.
As for Question No. 3? I can't answer that one yet. But the trend line seems to point at the Over.
Listening to the chatter, it's not a wonderful time to be Scott Satterfield (Louisville); Pat Fitzgerald (Northwestern); Neal Brown (West Virginia); David Shaw (Stanford) or Bryan Harsin (Auburn)?
Considering at least one Power 5 coach has been fired over the last four weekends and the pace accelerated last weekend, Over must be the play here, too.
What is everybody looking for?
Greatness, of course.
A spot in the college football playoffs.
Big-time bowl wins.
Odds are they want what Texas A&M wanted when it hired Jimbo Fisher or what Michigan State told the world it had when it recruited Mel Tucker from Colorado and then extended his contract.
Oops.
Bad examples.
They were the hot names last year.
Now, Fisher is making around $9.5 million a year to lose a home game to Appalachian State as well as a road game to Mississippi State (by 18 points) — and his deal is guaranteed through 2031.
Hold Jimbo's gumbo. Tucker has his $95 million deal, which he negotiated without flashing the national championship credential Fisher earned at Florida State.
All Tucker had to do last season was win his first eight games and have an agent plant the story that he was the hot candidate for the Louisiana State job.
Before you could say, "Geaux Tigahs," Michigan State administrators made certain Tucker was not going anywhere with his 10-year, $95 million deal.
Breaking: After winning their first eight games last season, Tucker and the Spartans finished 3-2. They have also started this season 2-3, losing to Washington, Minnesota and Maryland (not Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia) by a combined 52 points.
So over his last 10 games, Tucker is a .500 coach, being paid just a cut below what Nick Saban gets to rule college football at Alabama.
Wisconsin, Colorado, Georgia Tech, Nebraska and Arizona can spend whatever they want to spend but they're not going to be Alabama, Ohio State or Georgia. Sorry to break it to them. Check the numbers. There's no room for newcomers at the top of college football.
Yes, that is the same Saban who once, coincidentally, also coached at Michigan State and did leave for LSU after the 1999 season.
According to an Associated Press story dated Dec. 1, 1999, Saban doubled his Michigan State salary of $697,330 to move to LSU.
Now, $679,330 won't get you a competent offensive or defensive coordinator, and college football coaches fall out of favor faster than the latest greatest espresso drink.
You can credit the Moe, Larry and Curlys running college football for that.
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