LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — The record shows that all four teams gathering in San Antonio for the men’s NCAA Final Four this weekend are one-seeds.
That Auburn, Florida, Duke and Houston have won their four opening NCAA Tournament games by an average of 12.3 points or more.
All four programs are led by coaches who do not have a national championship on their resumes. In fact, none of the four — Jon Scheyer of Duke; Kelvin Sampson; Bruce Pearl of Auburn or Todd Golden of Florida — has taken a team to the Division I title game.
One analytics site — Ken Pomeroy — has Florida defeating Auburn by a point and Duke defeating Houston by two points.
Another analytics site — Bart Torvik — disagrees on both games. Torvik’s formula has Auburn defeating Florida by a point and Houston defeating Duke by a point.
It doesn’t get any closer — or confusing — than that. So it’s time to make a case for — and against — every Final Four team.
WHY DUKE WILL WIN
Duke freshman Cooper Flagg reacts to a call in the first half of a win over Louisville in the KFC Yum! Center on Dec. 8, 2024.
Talent rules. Duke attacks with three guys who will be taken in the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft — Cooper Flagg, Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel, all possible lottery picks. There are no certain first round picks on Houston, Florida or Auburn. Excellent college players, but nobody close to lottery level.
Every team has won its first four games by double figures, but Duke’s average victory margin of 25.5 is a major jump from Houston’s 16, Auburn’s 12.8 and Florida’s 12.3. The Blue Devils have found another gear the last two weeks. They made Alabama, the third-best team in the Southeastern Conference, look like Boston College.
The Blue Devils incorporate the three-point shot into their offense more than any team and shoot a sizzling percentage. Better than 44% of Duke’s shots are from distance and they’re making 38.8%, the seventh-best percentage in the country.
Get this: In the tournament Duke has been even better — making 43 of 91, or 47.3%.
The Blue Devils have won 31 of their last 32 games, 26 by double figures.
Duke is the tallest team in the field and in all of college basketball, according to Ken Pomeroy’s site. The average size of a Duke player is 6 feet, 6 1/2 inches.
WHY DUKE WON’T WIN
The Blue Devils beat up on mediocre teams for most of the winter in the Atlantic Coast Conference. In five non-conference games outside the ACC, Duke beat Illinois, Auburn and Arizona but lost to Kentucky and Kansas.
With three freshmen, one junior and one senior in the starting lineup, Duke is the least experienced team in San Antonio (according to Pomeroy). The average college experience of Duke players is 1.95 years. A freshman oriented team has not won the title since … Duke did it 10 years ago.
This is coach Jon Scheyer’s first trip to the Final Four in his third season as a head coach. Beware.
His 2023 team lost to Tennessee as a 3.5 point favorite in the second round. His 2024 team lost to North Carolina State as a 7-point favorite in the Elite Eight. Mike Krzyzewski did not win his first national title until his fifth Final Four visit.
WHY HOUSTON WILL WIN
Houston's Emanuel Sharp celebrates during the second half in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA college basketball tournament against Tennessee Sunday, March 30, 2025, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
The Cougars rank first in the nation in defensive efficiency, allowing 87.4 points per 100 possessions. Did you watch Houston limit Tennessee to 15 points in the first half Sunday?
Houston’s four NCAA Tournament opponents shot 24% from distance, making 24 of 100 attempts.
Sampson’s team limited Tennessee to 50 points, the Vols’ second-lowest total this season and Purdue to 60, the Boilermakers’ third lowest total. Kelvin Sampson has always been serious about two things — defense and phone calls.
The Cougars have won 17 straight, 13 against NCAA Tournament teams.
Houston does not rely on the three-point shot but the Cougars have three starters making better than 41% of their attempts.
They also have the largest spread in field goal percentage in making the three and defending it — plus 9.6%. That’s valuable.
WHY HOUSTON WON’T WIN
Houston slowed Duke down last season in the Sweet Sixteen, but still could not win, losing, 54-51. And this Duke team is considerably better.
The Cougars rank last among the Final Four teams in getting to the free-throw line, two-point field goal percentage and offensive tempo. That’s not a great come from behind formula.
Sampson’s team is also the shortest team in the group, with an average height of 6 feet, 4 inches. The Cougars do not start any players taller than 6-8.
WHY AUBURN WILL WIN
Auburn head coach Bruce Pearl reacts to a play during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Monmouth, Monday, Dec. 30, 2024, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
The Tigers take care of the ball better than the Gators, Blue Devils or Cougars, turning it over on only 13.5% of all possessions.
Auburn is difficult to guard because of its impressive balance. Five Auburn players average 10.9 points per game or more.
Auburn won 15 games and the regular season title in the Southeastern Conference, which proved it was the best league in America by advancing a record seven teams to the Sweet Sixteen.
The Tigers are the most experienced team in the group, starting four seniors and a freshman. According to KenPom, the average Division I experience of an Auburn player is 2.8 seasons.
Although this is Pearl’s second Division I Final Four, he’s the only coach with a national title, scoring a Division 2 title at Southern Indiana in 1995.
WHY AUBURN WON’T WIN
The Tigers are the only team to play the other three teams in San Antonio. But after defeating Houston, they lost to Duke and Florida.
Auburn sagged at the end of the season, losing three of four before the NCAA Tournament began.
The Tigers’ aggressive defensive style leads to more fouls than the other three teams commit. The free throw rate of Auburn’s opponents per field goal attempt is 38.2.
That’s easily the worst among the Final Four teams. Auburn ranked No. 304. Houston is No. 207 at 33.8, Florida 169th at 32.7 and Duke is No. 17 at 24.9. Duke gets a favorable whistle? Imagine.
WHY FLORIDA WILL WIN
Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. (1) celebrates their win over Texas Tech in the Elite Eight of the NCAA college basketball tournament, Saturday, March 29, 2025, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
The Gators averaged a sizzling 1.22 points per possession while winning at Auburn, 90-81, in a game that Florida led by 21 five minutes into the second half.
While Auburn won the SEC regular-season title, the Gators defeated Missouri, Alabama and Tennessee (the last two Elite Eight teams) while rolling to the SEC Tournament title with an average victory margin of 15 points in Nashville. No wonder they were the pick to win the tournament by Jay Bilas and Jay Wright.
Not only do the Gators have five guys averaging 9.8 or more points, coach Todd Golden plays 10 guys at least 10 minutes per game. That includes four guys who are 6-10 or taller. They can all go and go and go.
The Gators do phenomenal work collecting offensive rebounds, collecting nearly 39% of their misses. That ranked fifth nationally and better than Houston (36.8), Auburn (33.8) or Duke (32.6). They’re not afraid to miss because even when they miss something good often happens.
Pomeroy ranks the Gators’ Walter Clayton Jr. as the best guard in the field. He trails only Duke forward Cooper Flagg and Johni Broome of Auburn in KenPom's national player of the year standings. Clayton shoots nearly 39% from distance and 86.5% from the free throw line. He’s 14 for 31 from three in the tournament and 31 of 35 from the line. Baller.
WHY FLORIDA WON’T WIN
Although they rank 10th nationally, the Gators have worst defensive efficiency in the group. Florida has limited only one of its last 11 opponents to less than 70 points.
Florida has the worst defensive turnover percentage in the group, forcing mistakes on 16.6% of opposing possessions. Forcing turnovers and getting stops are critical if you’re trying to make a comeback.
The Gators played the easiest non-conference schedule of the Final Four teams. Only one Florida non-SEC opponent made the 68-team field — North Carolina, the last at-large team selected.
The Gators were fortunate to survive UConn, trailing by 3 with less than four minutes to play, as well as Texas Tech, a team they trailed by 9 with a little more than three minutes left. They've been clutch but they've also danced with defeat.
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