LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — Virginia lost a road game to Wake Forest by 19 points two weeks ago.
The Cavaliers were beaten by 16 at North Carolina State a week before that defeat.
There is also a 22-point loss at Notre Dame on the Virginia resume.
Only Louisville (1-4) has a worse Atlantic Coast Conference road record than Tony Bennett’s team (1-3).
That’s the best hook I could concoct to create a case that U of L can upset Virginia for the Cards’ second ACC victory Saturday at noon in the KFC Yum! Center.
“We’ve got to fight even harder because they’re a good team, a Pack Line Defense team,” said U of L forward Tre White.
“But like I said earlier, we have our ways how we’re going to attack them. I feel pretty confident about it.”
My favorite analytics sites do not support White’s confidence. The predicted scores at Ken Pomeroy (68-62) and Bart Torvik (66-60) are unified in their belief in a Virginia victory.
Virginia dispatched the Cards by 24 points on Jan. 3 in Charlottesville.
The programs have played 20 times since Louisville joined the ACC for the 2014-15 season. The Cardinals have won twice — by 2 points on March 7, 2015 under Rick Pitino and by 7 points on Feb. 8, 2020 under Chris Mack.
This is not one of Bennett’s better squads, but the Cavaliers have won three straight and have victories over Florida, Texas A&M and Virginia Tech. They are 14-5 overall and 5-3 in the league, still capable of making you play a possession-by-possession grind the way they want to play it.
If you can build a stronger foundation than Virginia’s shaky road record to make a prediction that Louisville can win Saturday, the floor will remain open until tipoff.
Until then, Virginia’s double-digits losses at Wake, N.C. State and Notre Dame will have to do as evidence of how to beat the Cavaliers.
Bennett’s team lost to Notre Dame by 22 because the Irish made 11 of 23 shots from distance on a day that Virginia went 2 for 11. Notre Dame also out-rebounded the visitors, 40-27.
Virginia lost to NC State by a dozen because the Wolfpack outscored the Cavaliers by 15 points from distance and also made 62% of their two-point attempts.
Virginia lost to Wake Forest by 19 because the Demon Deacons outscored the Cavaliers by 18 points from distance and out-rebounded the visitors, 40-27.
“In order to have success you have to challenge those shots and force them to shoot a bad percentage, if possible, defensively,” U of L assistant coach Danny Manning said.
“So we have to do a much better job with that. Then we have to finish off the possession with a rebound.”
Mark this down: In those three road losses, Virginia made two, five and four three-point field goals. They were outscored by an average of 20 points from distance.
When Virginia beat Louisville by 24, the Cavaliers made 10 of 26 shots from distance on a day when Louisville went 6 for 25.
Beating Virginia and Bennett’s dogged adherence to the Pack Line Defense will require Louisville to make three-point shots and not allow the open looks that too often define the Cards’ defense.
If you’re requesting more anecdotal evidence, make another note that Furman outscored Virginia 30-6 from the three-point line when the Paladins upset the Cavaliers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season.
“I think the key to stopping them is just being disciplined throughout the whole shot clock,” said U of L senior Zan Payne.
“You’ve got to stay locked in. We’re watching film, we’re watching their possessions and how they score and stuff. We’ve just got to stay locked in the whole shot clock.”
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