LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – This day has made me nervous, I’m not going to lie. This is my first Associated Press Top 25 ballot, and there is no way to keep from looking like an idiot.
We’re ranking teams we have very little idea about. The goal is to rank them 1 to 25 on how good they are today, not in March. But either way, there are too many unknowns. Who knows how well transfer portal pieces will mesh. Who is out there that we haven’t really thought about that will crash into the national consciousness.
Can Florida do it again? Can Houston come back and finish the job? Is this Purdue’s year for a Final Four?
Who really knows. Nobody much knew last year. I take some solace in that.
Only three teams in the 2024 preseason Top 10 were still in the Top 10 by year’s end. Of the 14 teams that made both polls, the average miss was 7.5 spots. Florida, which won the national title, began the season ranked No. 21.
Kansas, UConn, Baylor and North Carolina all began the season in the Top 10 and finished unranked. The teams that finished 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 all began the season unranked.
You get the picture.
For my first poll, I used a little bit of consensus, a little bit of gut feeling, and a double portion of data from Bart Torvik’s ratings, which I have a lot of respect for. I gave weight to teams with more returning players, at least in this early-season look. But in the end, anything really stupid is my own.
My ballot follows:
- Houston: Three starters back from a team that came *this close* to a national championship. I like Houston’s odds to be in Indianapolis for another Final Four, and their returning core puts them in particularly good position to be tough from the opening game.
- Purdue: Another team with a heavy returning corps and one of the best coaches in the game. If they were coming off a Final Four season, I’d probably have them No. 1. But they’re not. But let’s face it, the storyline of Purdue getting to a Final Four in Indy is going to be a motivating force in West Lafayette all season.
- Florida: The team that did win it all a year ago is a legitimate threat to do it again, in large part because of Boogie Fland’s decision to head to Gainesville. Princeton transfer Xavian Lee should be fun to watch, and big man Alex Condon provides an important link to last season’s accomplishment.
- UConn: The Huskies return three starters, add Georgia transfer Silas Demary and Danny Hurley says he is bringing a renewed commitment to defense.
- Duke: Yeah, I know, Duke returns 0 starters. But they do have Caleb Foster and Isaiah Evans back, and added Maliq Brown from Syracuse. But it’s freshmen like Cameron Boozer and his brother Cayden, as well as Dame Sarr and Sebastian Wilkins, that have the Blue Devils this high on the list.
- St. John’s: Rick Pitino’s only returning starter, Zuby Ejiofor, is a really good one. He wasted no time rebuilding through the portal, adding Bryce Hopkins, Joson Sonon and Oziyah Sellers, and all was right with the world. He’s also got five international players – but no true point guard. Still, in Rick we trust.
- Michigan: Dusty May is set to follow up a successful debut season in Ann Arbor with a deep team that returns two starters from last season’s Sweet 16 squad, plus Elliott Caeau, a transfer point guard from North Carolina, and UAB transfer Yaxel Lendeborg, the top-ranked transfer in the nation.
- BYU: Kevin Young’s 26 wins last season were the most for a first-year coach in school history. He could win more this season, with freshman AJ Dybantsa, the top-ranked recruit in the country, to build around.
- Kentucky: Mark Pope has Otega Oweh back, and as deep a roster as anyone in the country. He added Denzel Aberdeen from national champion Florida, Mo Dioubate of Alabama and Pittsburgh’s Jaland Lowe. Returnee Brandon Garrison will start the season in the post, but when big man Jayden Quaintance gets healthy, look out.
- Louisville: Pat Kelsey had some bad injury luck or his first-year success would’ve even been more stunning. Year 2 will be no let-up. He adds shooting and more shooting in transfers Adrian Wooley (Kennesaw State), Isaac McKneely (Virginia) and Ryan Conwell (Xavier), along with a top freshman in Mikel Brown. Glue-guy J’Vonne Hadley returns, as does interior player Kasean Pryor, with Ali Khalifa jumping in after a redshirt season.
- UCLA: The addition of New Mexico point guard Donovan Dent should have Mick Cronin off and running in Westwood.
- Texas Tech: Grant McCasland is a great coach. I’d put him in the Top 15 without seeing his roster. But I have seen it, and JT Toppin is an All-American.
- Alabama: It’s possible I have the Crimson Tide a few spots too low, especially if this is Nate Oats’ best-shooting team.
- Arizona: Tommy Lloyd has three starters back, plus high-scoring freshman Brayden Burries.
- Arkansas: John Calipari has more depth, some solid experience in DJ Wagner and Karter Knox and Billy Richmond, and his usual stacked corps of recruits.
- Iowa State: A typically good-shooting, tough defensive T.J. Otzelberger team, with four starters who played key roles in Ames last season.
- Tennessee: I expect Tennessee will finish higher than this ranking, but with a bunch of new pieces to work in early, including Maryland transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie, may not be there immediately. Freshman Nate Ament will be a handful by season’s end.
- Illinois: These dudes have more consonants in the starting lineup than any team in America. They’ve got four expected starters whose last name ends with the letter “c.” That’s good enough for me.
- Kansas: Bill Self returns no starters but has the No. 2 recruit in the nation in Darryn Peterson. He also has former Louisville swingman Tre White as a projected starter, so there is that.
- Gonzaga: Mark Few returns only one starter, but has some older transfers, like 25-year-old JCUO/Kansas/DePaul/Grand Canyon small forward Tyon Grant-Foster and and 23-year-old Wyoming power forward Graham Ike.
- Auburn: Love the War Eagles’ roster, and Tahaad Pettiford, but what to make of the Bruce Pearl departure. I dropped them a little bit, but they can fight their way back up.
- Wisconsin: Greg Gard had the Badgers averaging more than 80 points per game last season and everybody thought hell was freezing over. No, Madison is just that call. But Kamari McGee is back, so expect more of the same.
- Creighton: Greg McDermott has a couple of starters back from a team that beat Louisville in the NCAA first round last season, has five rotation players back and adds high-scoring Charlotte point guard Nik Graves. Josh Dix, who averaged 14.4 points per game, and who scored 16.7, both transfer from Iowa.
- Michigan State: This pick is either really smart or really dumb. But, you know, Tom Izzo, Losing Kaleb Glenn to an injury is a blow, but he’s got some talented portal additions and a couple of solid freshmen. That and some duct tape and he’ll be near the top of the Big Ten.
- North Carolina: It’s a pivotal year for Hubert Davis in Chapel Hill. He has plenty of size, and 6-10 freshman Caleb Wilson will need to make an impact early.
Quick sips
HOOSIER POWER: In case you missed it, Indiana is one of the best teams in college football. Read my column from Saturday’s upset win at No. 3 Oregon.
BUSY MONDAY: Today, Jeff Brohm talks Louisville’s big ACC matchup at No. 2 Miami on Friday. Mark Stoops follows an uneasy bye week with a press conference on Saturday’s game against Texas. Jeff Walz talks at Louisville’s women’s basketball luncheon. And the aforementioned AP men’s basketball preseason poll is released at 2 p.m.
The Last Drop
"Last year, I was the way I was because I thought I needed to be taking over this program. Kind of lead the charge the way I was out there a little bit. I knew that early on in December. I thought we established credibility last season. And I didn't need to be that way and I could focus on what I do best: coach this football team."
Indiana coach Curt Cignetti, on how his tone has moderated since his early days in Bloomington
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