LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- The way I study a Preakness field and use a process of elimination to find win contenders is more belief and intuition than the strict step-by-step analysis I use for the Kentucky Derby each year. This column took down the favorite, Journalism, in the Derby for some great payouts, but that might be wishful thinking to try it again in this field.
It's always a mix of new shooters with extra rest and Derby horses wheeling back off what is likely the least amount of time between races they will ever have to recover. Yet, the Derby horses that ran well at Churchill Downs are likely better horses than the Preakness new shooters, because they qualified for the Derby via points from stakes races.
If I'm going to consider betting on a Preakness new shooter to win, that horse better at least have one of the following:
- a better excuse for bypassing the Derby than he didn't have the points to run
- Speed figures that do not require a big jump to beat the best in the Preakness
Lastly, if you're interested in betting this race, just remember a nine-horse field vs. a 20-horse field means you cannot put a lot of horses on your exotics, like the Derby, or you risk not making a profit, even if you have the favorite winning. Take a stand on your belief and intuition.
Preakness Winner Trends: Are There Any?
Here are the last 15 Preakness winners and results from their most recent race before the second leg of the Triple Crown. You'll find we are on a recent run of new shooters winning the Preakness, but that could also just be recency bias, as not many new shooters won over the full 15-year sample.
It seems making any firm conclusions about new shooters vs. Derby horses is unwise. It also seems new shooters wheeling back from Derby weekend, who didn't run in the Derby itself, cannot be crossed out, either.
Preakness 150 Field
The best we can do for this year's race is analyze each horse and ask ourselves if any can beat the favorite, Journalism, on their best day.
Remember, Journalism has run three 100+ Beyer Speed Figures, and the Preakness winner has posted no worse than a 97 every year since at least 2011, with the median Preakness-winning BSF being 102.
1. Goal Oriented 6-1 (Last three Beyer Speed Figures: 91-91-n/a)
Bob Baffert's entry has drawn the rail again, after Citizen Bull had to break from the 1-post in the Derby. Baffert sent the Bull to the lead and tried to immediately angle out off the rail, the other horses beside him be damned. We should expect the same here, but with more early speed signed on again in this race and a lightly-raced horse (two career starts), closing fast may be asking a lot.
Goal Oriented won Race 3 on the Derby-day undercard but didn't exactly pull away from the field. He won, but it was not an impressive win vs. worse company than this.
From a speed figures perspective, jumping from a career-best 91 to a Preakness-winning Beyer Speed Figure is probably asking too much.
2. Journalism 8-5 (Last three BSF: 102-102-108)
Truly, the only question required of Journalism in this race is whether he can bounce back from only two weeks between starts and give us another run like we've seen in every race since his maiden.
That requires intuition and belief. The ownership seems to have put the trainer, Michael McCarthy, under no obligation to wheel back this fast and run in the race. That leads me to believe that the horse has recovered nicely and is ready to at least give us his B-effort, which is enough to finish second or better in this field, in my opinion. Another A-effort, and they're all running for second behind him.
It's also not the first time he's done this. Journalism ran three races in seven weeks as a two-year-old.
McCarthy told WDRB's Rick Bozich something even more interesting that should get the attention of handicappers.
"There's going to be plenty of speed in there, enough speed that I think we'll be in a good tactical spot."
The other way to theoretically beat Journalism on short rest is to get out to the lead with a slow early pace and have plenty of horse left to stay ahead of the favorite. McCarthy and plenty of others do not seem to be projecting an easy pace. Another checkmark in Journalism's column.
3. American Promise 15-1 (Last three BSFs: 53-95-88)
Can D. Wayne Lukas get this horse to bounce back from a disappointing Derby in two weeks to win the Preakness? Lukas did it with Oxbow in 2013, but that horse survived a brutal early pace to still finish in the top half of the field. American Promise melted and finished 16th.
Can he get back to his Virginia Derby form? That new Derby prep had questionable competition and was American Promise's third race off a layoff, when horses typically have a ceiling outcome. That effort appears to be the outlier in his resume, with no top-four finishes in his other races as a three-year-old.
Another horse that is projected to be near the early speed in the Preakness.
4. Heart of Honor 12-1 (no Beyer Speed Figures available)
One of the few horses here where the early speed could help. We do not have Beyer Speed Figures for this English-bred making his debut on American soil, but we do know this. Last time out, he finished second in the UAE Derby to the horse that finished dead last in the Kentucky Derby.
Tough to consider him for more than clunking up the back of a superfecta.
5. Pay Billy 20-1 (Last three BSFs: 85-83-83)
The local Maryland horse who is in this race because he won the Tesio, which comes with an automatic berth into the Preakness. He's never run a 90+ BSF and faces a favorite who has three 100+ BSFs. Toss.
6. River Thames 9-2 (Last three BSFs: 94-95-92)
A horse that needs to be taken seriously. This new shooter is fresh having last run third in the Blue Grass Stakes and second before that to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth. He also is a Derby-quality horse, whose connections opted to point to the Preakness vs. running on the first Saturday in May.
Trainer Todd Pletcher is decorated, even if he has shockingly yet to win a Preakness. This is easily one of the two best new shooters in this field.
7. Sandman 4-1 (Last three BSFs: 87-99-89)
With his Metallica and massive influencer following, he was overbet in the Derby and will likely be so again in the Preakness. If he runs off the board again, it creates value. Sandman really had no excuse in the Derby. He's a closer, and the pace was a perfect setup for him. He finished 7th. Many have criticized him as an immature horse who has trouble running in a straight line.
Even before the Derby, the Arkansas Derby was another perfect setup with blistering early fractions. Sandman won, but his final three-furlong time was slow. His final furlong time was slower than Journalism's, and that was very obvious down the stretch in the Kentucky Derby.
Where is the evidence that Sandman will make up all that ground on Journalism two weeks later?
8. Clever Again 5-1 (Last two BSFs: 101-87)
The Steve Asmussen horse has run twice as a three-year-old, which means the third race off a layoff could be his best yet. And if he does off that 101 Beyer in the Hot Springs at Oaklawn? This could be the biggest threat to Journalism, especially with the rest advantage.
The only issue here is if he can survive a hot early pace for 1 3/16 miles. The 87 Beyer on his resume from February was at 1 1/16 miles. The 101 in the Hot Springs was only at one mile.
But there is precedent for a Preakness winner stretching out from one mile to win. It just happened last year with Seize The Grey on only two weeks' rest. However, that was the only Preakness winner in the last 15 years to do that. Plus, Seize The Grey sat on a slow pace that is not expected here.
The pace is everything here for Clever Again. If he can get on the lead and slow down the pace, he could go gate to wire. If Goal Oriented and others compromise him, Journalism will likely run him down.
9. Gosger 20-1 (Last three BSFs: 87-88-73)
Another horse that just does not appear to be fast enough, based on the speed figures, even if he did win the Lexington Stakes. Extra rest is really the only checkmark in his favor.
How I'm Betting $100 on the Preakness
I agree with Mike Somich, one of my favorite horse handicappers, that we should find ways to get creative in using Journalism in this race. I would be shocked if he's anywhere near the 8-5 morning line at post time, as some fixed odds markets are at even money. I even saw one with Journalism at less than even money.
I'll play Journalism straight up, assuming an even money payout, and dabble on a couple of exotics with his two biggest threats: River Thames and Clever Again.
- $4 Black Eyed Susan/Preakness Double: 7,8/2; $8 ticket
- $48 Preakness win bet: No. 2 Journalism
- $4 Preakness Exacta: 2/6,8; $8 ticket
- $2 Trifecta: 2,6,8/2,6,8/2,4,6,8; $24 ticket
- $1 Superfecta: 2,6/2,6/4,8,9/4,8,9; $12 ticket
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