LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Saturday's game against Miami is one that has been circled all season for the University of Louisville football program — or, at least, by its fans and the media who cover it.
Though it really is no less crucial than, say, the afternoon home game Louisville played against SMU a couple of weeks ago, the matchup with Miami was seen from the start as a meeting of ACC championship game hopefuls.
Miami enters the game fitting that description, though the Hurricanes have had to be escape artists to get here. Louisville enters with a road loss to Notre Dame but also the home conference loss to SMU, making this game as much about necessity as opportunity for the Cardinals. A loss here all but knocks them out of championship game contention before Halloween.
It's an advantage for Louisville that it will be playing in front of the first sellout crowd of the season at home — though such crowds and the atmosphere may be more effective at night in L&N Stadium. Meeting the moment of a huge home crowd and a noon ABC broadcast, though, will be important for Louisville.
A win keeps the Cardinals in the ACC conversation, at least. With Miami coming into game a five-point favorite, here are three keys to Louisville pulling the upset:
1). A GOOD START. After reeling off 20 straight games where opponents failed to score on their opening drives — not to mention a solid record of posting first-quarter shutouts — Louisville has fallen behind in three straight games by giving up opening-drive touchdowns.
The implications don't just impact the offensive pressure that puts on the Cardinals to come back. But a defense that is able to play with a lead gets closer to making opponents one dimensional, which makes games far easier to call for the defensive coaches.
In Miami, Louisville encounters a team prone lately to slow starts. Though the Hurricanes took a 7-0 lead to start their game at California two weeks ago, they trailed 21-10 at the half on the way to a 35-10 deficit midway through the third quarter.
Against Virginia Tech two weeks prior, Miami fell behind 7-0 and trailed 24-14 late in the second quarter.
The Hurricanes rallied furiously in both games, with a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to beat Virginia Tech and 21 fourth-quarter points to beat Cal — so the start isn't everything.
But for Louisville, playing out of a hole is not the best scenario.
2). BIG PLAYS. Louisville has been a big-play offense. The Cardinals rank second in the nation in plays of 40 yards or more. Miami has been prone to allowing big plays. They've given up seven plays of 50 yards or more this season.
The Cardinals will have opportunities to get the ball down the field and take advantage of chunk plays — but will have to execute. Dropped passes, penalties that nullify large gains, these will be killers against a team that will present Louisville with no margin of error. The Cardinals had three drops (two by running back Isaac Brown) in last week's win at Virginia.
Brown hanging onto those passes this week will be key — because the freshman capable of being Louisville's biggest big-play threat. Last week against Virginia he had seven runs for a dozen yards or more. And Louisville's receiver trio of Ja'Corey Brooks, Caullin Lacy and Chris Bell will have plenty of opportunities, too.
Both Cal and Virginia Tech took advantage of big plays to score near-upsets. Miami coach Mario Cristobal says preventing chunk plays — including "eye discipline" on defense — has been a significant emphasis for his defense during its bye week leading up to the game.
Adapting to changes in looks that the Miami defense may present will be one of the challenges facing Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough. Staying on his feet against an athletic Miami defensive front will be another.
Part of taking advantage of big plays will be keeping Shough clean enough to throw the ball downfield. Louisville ranks No. 115 in FBS (against FBS competition) in offensive sack percentage. Brohm a week ago made some adjustments to offensive line personnel to address that, but Shough was still sacked twice.
A clean offensive game taking advantage of chunk opportunities will be crucial, because Miami's offense poses problems.
3). CONTAINING CAM WARD. By any measure, the Hurricanes have one of the nation's more potent offenses. It begins with quarterback Cam Ward, who leads the nation at 369.8 passing yards per game. He's thrown 20 touchdown passes with five interceptions and completed 69 percent of his passes.
"He's a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate — he's really good," Louisville coach Jeff Brohm said. "He can throw it, move around and buy time, has a great feel for the position and gets it to the playmakers. He makes that offense go. ... He understands football. He's got a great feel, stands in and makes last-minute throws. I think he throws it the best when he's on the move, when he can buy time. That's when big plays are created, because he's so natural at doing this. So we've got to contain him in the pocket and make him throw from the pocket. We've got to guard as well as we can and we've got to make sure we pocket rush and push it towards him and not allow him to escape."
Louisville had three sacks last week at Virginia and will need to get pressure on Ward. Miami is aided by the return from injury of a top offensive lineman, Jalen Rivers, for this week's game.
The Hurricanes have scored at least 38 points in every game this season, and lead the nation in scoring offense at 47.7 points per game.
To slow down that attack, Louisville will need to force a turnover here and there if possible. The return of ball-hawking cornerback Quincy Riley should help in that effort.
Louisville has had problems against skilled quarterbacks with a good ability to diagnose and attack a defense's mistakes — and that's exactly what Ward is.
The Cardinals aren't likely to stop Miami for 60 minutes, but if they can slow the Hurricanes down, they can give their offense a chance to win the game.
Louisville Football Coverage:
- BOZICH | ACC Power Ratings Week 8: Louisville parked behind 4 teams
- BOZICH | Against Miami, Louisville needs Jeff Brohm's trademark: An October Surprise
- BOZICH | Miami gives Louisville football big challenge, bigger opportunity
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