LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- It's early January, but the stakes may feel more like March when No. 6 Duke visits the KFC Yum! Center on Tuesday night.
It's not that Louisville has a bad tournament resume. But like most teams, it could stand to freshen this one up a bit, and a win over Duke is the kind of thing that makes a resume pop.
The Cardinals (11-3, 1-1 ACC) have handled business against a strong schedule, but they've missed on some of their biggest opportunities — falling at Arkansas and at Tennessee — and just drooped a conference game on the road to Stanford without freshman point guard Mikel Brown.
Their best win to date — over Kentucky in the season's second week — now registers as a Quad 2 victory in the NCAA's NET ranking system.
Louisville | Kentucky | Indiana | Eric Crawford
This isn't a must-win. But it's a chance Louisville can't afford to waste.
The Cardinals have a couple of Quad 1 wins and will get more chances in league play. But this is the kind of opportunity that sticks with the NCAA Selection Committee — and everyone else watching — come March.
And Louisville enters it with three major questions still unanswered.
Can Louisville survive without Mikel Brown?
The freshman point guard is expected to miss his fifth straight game with a lingering back issue — and the numbers show his absence has taken a toll.
In the past five games, Louisville's turnover percentage has climbed. Steals per game are down. So is its free-throw attempt rate and bench scoring.
Brown is second on the team at 16.6 points per game, and while transfer Adrian Wooley has stepped into a larger scoring role, the Cards don't generate many easy transition points, ranking fifth from the bottom among Power 5 teams in fast-break scoring. And have had even fewer without Brown.
But where Brown's absence may be felt most is on defense.
He's a disruptive on-ball defender with a knack for steals and length that alters passing lanes. Without him, opposing backcourts have had more freedom, and Louisville has struggled to stop straight-line drives.
Can the defense hold up against elite teams?
Louisville is fouling too much — 20 fouls per game, ranking in the bottom 15% nationally — and not creating enough pressure to make up for it.
In its past five games, the Cardinals' steal rate has dropped significantly. So has their block percentage. The result: more foul trouble, more free throws for opponents, and more stress on an offense that still leans heavily on the three.
That Stanford, which scored just 40 points in a slower-tempo game against Notre Dame, lit up Louisville for 80 last week was concerning. That Stanford posted 1.212 points per possession, even more so.
Louisville's lack of rim protection is a problem, and one the Cardinals will need to find an answer for.
In three losses this season, Louisville has allowed 1.229 points per possession. Even across all Power 5 games, it's allowing 1.09 — both numbers higher than Pat Kelsey would like, and both need to come down, with or without Brown.
When the threes stop falling, what's Plan B?
This team lives on the three. And when it doesn't fall, the floor gets shaky.
In three losses, Louisville has shot just 21.4% from deep, making an average of 7 threes per game. That's well below its season pace. In its wins, Louisville has made 39 percent from three.
The Cards lead the nation in percentage of field-goal attempts from three-point range (54%). When they go in, it works. When they don't? That's the challenge.
The irony is that Louisville has one of the highest two-point field goal percentages in the country. But deciding when to pivot from a cold perimeter night to pounding the paint — and finding the right players to do it — remains a dilemma.
The good news: The Yum! Center has been good to Louisville's shooters. The Cards average better than 14 made threes per game at home, hitting 39.6% from deep. Away from home, those numbers drop to nine threes per game on just 28.9%.
They'll need that home magic Tuesday night.
GAME SET
Duke at Louisville, 7 p.m.
TV:Â ESPN (Dan Shulman, Jay Bilas, Kris Budden)
Streaming:Â ESPN app
Radio:Â Cardinal Sports Network, 93.9 The Ville (Paul Rogers, Bob Valvano)
Streaming audio:Â ESPN Louisville app
Line:Â Louisville -1.5
Over/Under:Â 161.5
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