LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- For the University of Louisville basketball program, an unfortunate countdown to a disappointing conclusion has begun — if only unofficially. Assuming the Cardinals lose a first-round ACC Tournament game March 12, head coach Kenny Payne's two-year tenure could come to an end as early as March 13.

That's two weeks away. With three home games remaining, it may feel like three months.

No word on a decision — official or unofficial, on or off the record — has come from athletics director Josh Heird or sources close to him, and I would not expect it to. Having given Payne two full seasons to demonstrate evidence of a turnaround, there is little now Heird can say other than what he likely will say once the ball stops bouncing: It is time for a change.

It is a necessary move.

Much of the fan base has been looking ahead since Christmas. Some even longer. They've been talking about potential replacements for so long that they may be tired of a new coach before he's even hired.

My view before Payne got a chance to improve on his 4-28 debut season was that we'd know by New Year's whether he was likely to get a year three. That turned out to be true. My other view was that, given the sensibilities involved in hiring a former player, a favorite son no less, it would be best — painful as it is — if there were little debate.

There can be little debate.

Payne's two-year winning percentage after Wednesday's 84-59 loss at Duke is .200. In 1913, '14 and '15, Louisville played three full seasons without a head coach. Its winning percentage was .360.

Of Payne's 48 career losses, 32 have come by double digits. His two 20-loss seasons double the number of 20-loss seasons the program had endured in the 108 seasons before he arrived.

A good many got off the Payne Train after an exhibition loss to NCAA Division II Kentucky Wesleyan. More disembarked after the Cardinals fell to a DePaul team that has won only three games all season (and has not won another game since the Louisville victory). By the time Louisville suffered a double-digit loss to Arkansas State, only the truest of believers remained.

But the train was going nowhere. At present, it is the caboose of the ACC, in last place, two full games behind a Georgia Tech team with a first-year coach and three full games behind a Notre Dame team that has won more ACC games in Micah Shrewsberry's first season (six) than Payne has won in his first two (five). One of its wins was over Louisville. By 22. In the KFC Yum! Center.

Louisville has lost 57 games on Denny Crum Court in its home building. Of those, 21 have come the past two seasons, a dozen of them by double-digits.

These are just the facts.

Another fact: In Payne's second season, the program failed to meet even scaled-back projections for ticket revenue, finishing $2 million short of those. As I outlined in a previous column, a decision to make a change is driven as much by business as basketball.

But there are basketball reasons. Payne never voiced a coherent plan for the basketball program, did not outline concrete steps for it to climb out of its malaise, rarely discussed strategy beyond the need for his players to "fight" and, in the end, was left talking about his players' inability to "will" the team to victory.

Perhaps they lacked the will because they were not clear on the way, or at the very least, did not embrace it. Their lack of confidence at times belied a deficiency of preparation. And "fight" should be a given. It's an attitude, not a strategy. The first rule of fight club is that you do not talk about fight club. That Payne repeatedly had to urge his team to "fight" was a red flag.

With the loss to Duke on Wednesday, Louisville lost its final chance at a true signature win in Payne's first two seasons, barring a major upset in the ACC Tournament.

Maybe the team will find life at the end at home. Its remaining games are winnable — against Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Boston College. There have been rumblings of two five-star recruits who will commit if they know Payne will return.

Whatever happens, it's difficult to envision a happy ending on the horizon.

What cannot be said is that Payne has not been given a chance. He had ample resources. He had an NIL operation that was among the best in the country. Even after some embarrassing losses — and public relations missteps — in his second season, he was given the chance to finish out the season, to pull out of the fall and take advantage of a down year in the ACC with a manageable schedule down the stretch. If there were failures of support, they came in allowing Payne complete freedom to go his own way. 

Yes, Payne stepped into a mess. That's true. It shouldn't be discounted. He inherited little talent. He walked into a brutal early schedule. The problem is that two years in, the program does not appear to be emerging from the mess, at least not at anything approaching an acceptable rate. Even against a weak opening schedule this season, there were major stumbles. National reaction has ranged from laughter to pity.

Payne didn't need to win big right away. He did need to provide a reason for hope, to demonstrate on the court the beginnings of a turnaround, to sell fans on a vision he never really articulated in great detail. It's hard to do any of that when you're losing.

The team's improvement has come only in "small samples," Payne acknowledged.

For a program with a big history and big aspirations, that isn't enough.

There's nothing celebratory about any of this. No big ball will drop at the end of this countdown, just the closing curtain on an idea that began with an honorable hope.

Louisville tried to recapture the success of its past with one who helped build it, to rebuild the program's foundation using the sweat equity of some who helped make the program what it is. It would have made for a great story.

Reality has little respect for storylines, sometimes. And this one, regrettably, has just about run its course.

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