LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – This probably doesn’t need to be said, but I’ll say it anyway. The time has come. Kenny Payne has completed his second season at Louisville, and second postseason. And despite the coach offering the most passionate defense of his performance and plan to date after losing to North Carolina State in the ACC Tournament on Tuesday, the time has come for Louisville athletic director Josh Heird to make a change.
By this time Wednesday, sources say Payne will have been informed that he will not be retained as Louisville basketball coach and an announcement will be forthcoming.
Yes, Payne stood up at his opening news conference two years ago and said he needed the support of everyone, and that it would take time.
“I said, ‘I’m going to watch and see who jumps on and off the Titanic,’” Payne reminded fans and reporters Tuesday.
Here's the problem. Titanic sank. You had no choice but to jump off. If you didn’t jump off, you sank to the bottom of the ocean. The only people who survived found lifeboats.
Louisville head coach Kenny Payne during the first half of the Atlantic Coast Conference NCAA college basketball tournament game against North Carolina State, Tuesday, March 12, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
Louisville basketball, a proud program, a Top 10 tradition in college basketball, a three-time national champion and a survivor of a program, never given the resources of the blue bloods but among them in accomplishments still, is now Titanic.
It is on a slow descent to the bottom of the ocean. It did not begin with Payne. But he has been unable to stop it from sinking. The violins are playing.
Now Heird is on the clock. And now, there isn’t time to lose. Having allowed Payne to finish his second season, there’s little reason to drag this out much longer. Sources close to the athletic administration say that a plan is in place for the interim period between coaches.
On Tuesday, against N.C. State, Payne’s Louisville basketball team played better than it has for most of the ACC season, a conference slate in which it won only three games. Still, Payne’s Louisville team never played like its basketball life depended on beating a very beatable N.C. State team. The urgency was lacking, as it ever has been.
Over two seasons, Payne’s teams did not make opponents feel uncomfortable. They never achieved a signature win over a ranked opponent. Repeatedly, Payne said, he was telling players what to do, exhorting them to fight. But the gift of coaching – and it is gift that not every one has – is in getting players to do that in competition. It’s not enough to say it.
Heading into his second season in Louisville, Payne said, “I want this group to show, not through words, but through actions, the eye test. I want you guys to be able to look at this team and say, 'Wow, they play hard. They play together. They talk to each other.’”
But last week, in an insightful interview with Judge Derwin Webb, a former Louisville teammate, on his “Pespectives” podcast, Payne gave this twist to the eye test.
“I would say, look beyond what your eyes see," Payne said, "and be inquisitive about what we’re trying to do here.”
Regrettably, I have to say, the eyes don’t have it.
In two seasons, Payne has won just 12 out of 64 games, 18.75 percent. He has lost to Lenoir-Rhyne and Kentucky Wesleyan, App State and Arkansas State, Chattanooga and Lipscomb. He lost to Wright State, and that’s just wrong. And don’t forget Bellarmine. I know you won’t.
Louisville was overmatched in a great many games in Payne’s first season, and some in his second. But it was unable to win games even when it wasn’t overmatched. Payne could have made the decision for Heird a bit more difficult had he just beaten the teams Louisville should have beaten.
But even those hurdles could not be cleared. In the end, the stands were empty, the downtown restaurants (on game nights) were idle, and the eye test was a Jackson Pollock canvas, without the artistic value.
At one point while talking to Webb, Payne related something that Louisville great (and Payne supporter) Wade Houston told him: “’You know, Kenny Payne, I love you.’” Payne said Houston told him. “’You're a great coach. You work hard. (But) the product on the court has to be fighting for people to understand what you're doing. So if these kids don't fight, it's not going to look right. We know you. We know you want to fight. But they have to show people.’”
More often than not, it hasn’t looked right.
And in the end, even if they aren’t fighting hard enough, he is responsible for the performance. It’s one thing for a team to make mistakes. It’s another to not get back in transition, to not close out on three-point shooters, to not get to loose balls, to play without passion or joy.
Heird decided in December to let Payne finish the season, hoping that Payne could fashion a turnaround, and take advantage of a schedule that eased up once the calendar turned to February. Louisville did, in fact, win two of its first three games in February. It hasn’t won since.
Payne lost 24 home games in two seasons. He dropped 34 of his 52 losses by double digits.
The math isn’t good. And for Heird, the clock is ticking.
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