BOZICH | Is Kentucky looking up at the SEC basketball favorites? | Sports

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Santa Claus dropped a spiral copy of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook in my Christmas stocking.

It's the thickest, most complete hoops guide on the market, with contributions from dozens of writers across the country, including seven who filed previews on the 16 Southeastern Conference programs.

Blue Ribbon's forecast for the SEC opened at Rupp Arena.

Kentucky to win the league. Kentucky ranked third in the nation (behind North Carolina and Gonzaga).

There's more. Kentucky with the SEC's best frontcourt. Kentucky with the SEC's best backcourt. Kentucky with two players — forward Oscar Tshiebwe and guard Sahvir Wheeler —on the all-SEC first team.

John Calipari's team opens SEC play at 7 p.m. Wednesday at Missouri. The SEC Network will televise the game. Bracketologists will be watching.

The Blue Ribbon Yearbook forecast slotted Missouri 10th, ahead of Mississippi State, Georgia, South Carolina and Vanderbilt.

A game that once looked like a nice, soft welcome to SEC play for the Wildcats no longer has that vibe. The SEC forecast has been shaken and stirred. Scratch any ideas of a Wildcats walkover.

Tennessee, Alabama and Arkansas have all stacked credentials that compare favorably to Kentucky's credentials. Auburn and Mississippi State also show up as NCAA Tournament teams on Joe Lunardi's latest bracket at ESPN.com. So does Missouri — the Tigers are an 9-seed with Kentucky a 5. March will certainly be part of the conversation Wednesday night.

The projection at Ken Pomeroy's analytics web site is Kentucky, 79-76, with a 60% win probability

Bart Torvik, another college hoops analytics site, makes it Missouri 79, Kentucky 78, putting UK's win probability at 49%. Whoa.

Jeff Sagarin, the original go-to guy for computer rankings, breaks the tie by forecasting that Kentucky as 2.33 points better than Missouri.

In other words, this won't be a spot for Kentucky to glide into SEC play. The Tigers are 11-1. Most of their victories have come against chum: eight against teams ranked 150 or worse in Pomeroy.

In their first opportunity to prove they were legitimate, the Tigers whiffed badly, losing to Kansas by 28 points in Columbia.

In their second opportunity to prove they were legitimate, the Tigers proved they were legitimate.

Illinois was the pick of many to win the Big Ten this season. Missouri knocked the Illini out of the Top 25 with a 93-71 neutral court victory in St. Louis. At one point, Mizzou led, 68-36.

Led by first-year coach Dennis Gates, who won 20 games at Cleveland State last season, the Tigers lead the SEC in points per game, averaging nearly 89. It is a thoroughly modern approach to offense.

Missouri has scored 90 or more points six times this season. Kentucky has done it three times.

According to Pomeroy, Missouri ranks second in the nation (behind Arizona) in effective field goal percentage. The Tigers are also first in the SEC (and fifth in the nation) in turnover margin, forcing 7.2 more per game than they commit.

The Wildcats are eighth in the league and 132nd nationally in that stat at +1.4. Being wise with the basketball will be critical Wednesday night at Mizzou Arena.

Kentucky-Missouri is not the headliner on opening night of SEC play. That designation belongs to the 9 o'clock game that will follow on the SEC Network: Alabama at Mississippi State.

In five games against likely NCAA Tournament teams, Bama beat Michigan State, Memphis and Houston while losing to Gonzaga and UConn.

Bama freshman forward Brandon Miller is the top ranked player in the SEC at Pomeroy as well as a consensus top-10 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. He's the the kind of one-and-done player that you figured would play at Kentucky. So is Noah Clowney, another Bama rookie who has twice been named SEC Freshman of the Week.

Tennessee visits Ole Miss on Wednesday. The Volunteers rank first at KenPom in defensive efficiency, a Rick Barnes specialty. Like Alabama, the Vols are a 2-seed in the updated NCAA Tournament bracket Lunardi posted on Tuesday.

Arkansas also faces a road game with Louisiana State on Wednesday. The Razorbacks lack the higher quality wins that Alabama and Tennessee have earned. They're also dealing with the uncertain health situation surrounding freshman Nick Smith.

But you can count on Arkansas to be in the SEC mix. Just like Alabama and Tennessee. And even Missouri. The SEC forecast on Dec. 27 is not the same forecast that came in my Blue Ribbon Yearbook Christmas present.