LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Louisville’s longest active losing streak in the Atlantic Coast Conference is not against Virginia. It’s not against Duke or North Carolina.
It’s against the team the Cardinals will play at 8 p.m. Saturday in Tallahassee — Leonard Hamilton’s Florida State Seminoles.
The Cards have lost four straight to FSU. In the seven-plus seasons Louisville has competed in the ACC, only one other program has beaten Louisville five (or even four) consecutive games.
That would be Tony Bennett University.
The Cards are 2-12 against Virginia, including a nine-game losing streak.
Louisville is 4-7 against North Carolina, but the Tar Heels have yet to win more than two straight over U of L as ACC members.
Florida State has won six of 10 games against the Cards, including one in the 2019 season, two in 2020 and once last season. The last three FSU wins have been by at least 13 points.
Louisville has a Florida State problem, one that Chris Mack’s team is positioned to correct Saturday night.
Here are three reasons Louisville Will Fix its Florida State problem:
1. This is not a vintage Florida State team.
The Seminoles are 7-5, their worst record after a dozen games since 2015.
They lost by 16 to Florida. They lost by 28 to Purdue. They just lost to Wake Forest by 22. Jim Boeheim’s ordinary (7-7) Syracuse team beat Florida State in Tallahassee.
You won’t find Florida State on the bright side of the cut line in any NCAA Tournament projection bracket. The Seminoles do not have any victories against a top-100 opponent in Ken Pomeroy’s college basketball analytics ratings.
In fact, FSU’s most impressive win came against North Carolina State, another team that won’t be playing in the NCAA Tournament.
2. Leonard Hamilton has run out of first-round draft picks.
Hamilton, the former Kentucky assistant coach long, long, long ago under Joe B. Hall, has long been one of the most underrated college basketball coaches in the county.
Not only has he transformed FSU into a persistent threat to win the ACC, the Seminoles have competed in the last four NCAA Tournaments. They have always won at least one game while making the Elite Eight in 2018 and the Sweet Sixteen in 2019 and 2021.
Over the last five seasons, Leonard Hamilton has been one of the best coaches in the ACC -- and his Florida State teams have been difficult for Louisville to beat.
Hamilton has done that without shopping exclusively at the top or the recruiting rankings like Mike Krzyzewski, John Calipari and a few others.
His record for identifying and developing talent has been elite. Over the last three seasons, seven Florida State players have been selected in the first round of the NBA Draft: four in the first round, three in the draft lottery.
In the latest 2022 mock draft at USA Today, no Florida State players are projected to be taken in the first or second rounds.
The elite talent isn’t there this season. No Scottie Barnes. No Patrick Williams. No Devin Vassell. No Johnathan Isaac.
3. Offense is an issue for the Seminoles.
Florida State has averaged only 59.8 points in its five defeats, failing to score more than 65 against Florida, Purdue, Syracuse, South Carolina or Wake Forest.
In Pomeroy’s four factors that typically determine success — effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, offensive rebounding percentage and percentage of free throws vs. field goals — Florida State ranks outside the top 100 nationally in three of them and only No. 92 in offensive rebounding.
In ACC games, certainly a small sample size with FSU 1-2 in league play, Florida State ranks last in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage and three-point field goal percentage (14 for 70, a brutal 20%).
The Cardinals have never started 5-0 in ACC play. This is their shot.
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