LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – The University of Louisville team will be in an unfamiliar position entering Saturday’s 12:30 p.m. game against Boston College in Cardinal Stadium – as a favorite in a conference game.
The Cardinals have not been favored in a conference game since playing host to Wake Forest last season, when they lost 56-35 as a 2 ½-point favorite. They haven’t won an ACC game since Lamar Jackson left – a stretch of 10 conference games.
But when Boston College visits on Saturday, the Cards are a 6-point favorite to end that streak.
Judging “winnability” of games is a dangerous proposition with a team as unstable as Louisville has been over the past year. Head coach Scott Satterfield summed up the range of possibilities well for Louisville.
“We’re not good enough to go out there and just play and have mental mistakes, we’re not going to win many games that way,” Satterfield said. “We have to be very sharp mentally and play a clean game. Then we can win some games. When we do that, we are a good football team and when we don’t we are a really bad football team.”
That span from “good” to “really bad” is a long one.
Finding a road to a bowl game for Louisville isn’t easy. It’s like traveling the really small back roads. The Cardinals might have to pull off onto some gravel roads at some point.
After Boston College Saturday, they aren’t expected to be favored again all season – though that could change as games get closer on the schedule. For now, a quick look at the road ahead, and where more victories might come from for the Cardinals. After the BC game, spreads listed here are projections based on the Sagarin predictor rating, with home field figured in.
BOSTON COLLEGE (10/5, -6): As a touchdown favorite, this represents Louisville’s best chance to end its ACC losing streak, and maybe its best chance to keep the streak from stretching into next season.
But though the Eagles have struggled, losing two of their last three, they did push No. 22 Wake Forest to the brink at home last week, and have the nation’s No. 13 rushing offense behind junior A.J. Dillon, who ranks fourth nationally at 125.4 yards per game.
ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Cardinals a 77.6 percent chance to win this game.
AT WAKE FOREST (10/12, +10.5): The Demon Deacons are putting together a nice season, are 5-0 and will be heading into the Louisville game off a bye week. They also haven’t forgotten Wakey Leaks. And even if Bobby Petrino is gone, the memory lives. The game will be Satterfield’s first back in North Carolina since leaving Appalachian State. ESPN’s FPI gives Louisville a 31 percent chance in this one.
CLEMSON (10/19, +21.5): Clemson won last year’s meeting 77-16 and is 5-0 against the Cardinals since Louisville moved into the ACC. Nobody is expecting anything different this season. ESPN’s FPI pegs Louisville’s chances in this one at 6.6 percent. So we’re saying there’s a chance?
VIRGINIA (10/26, +4): Just for the purposes of speculation, I’m calling any spread in single-digits a targeted possible win for the Cardinals. If that’s the case, this game in Cardinal Stadium at the end of the month is another key opportunity. Now, Virginia is a good team. The Cavaliers are No. 23 nationally and the only blemish on their 4-1 record is a 35-10 setback at Notre Dame in which they have only themselves to blame. Still, if Louisville can remain healthy (no small concern at the end of a stretch of four games in four weeks for a thin team), and play a completely mistake-free game, it could find itself with a chance to win this one in the fourth quarter. Virginia’s running game has been less-than productive and its pass protection can be a bit shaky at times. Still, their front seven is stout, and they rank fifth nationally with 22 sacks. A win in this one likely would count as a significant upset for Louisville, but the metrics at the moment suggest at least an outside shot. ESPN’s FPI puts Louisville’s chances at 45.6 percent.
AT MIAMI (11/9, +12.5): The Cards will be coming off a bye week, and Miami will be coming off a game at Florida State, but that’s about all you can find in the way of advantages for the Cardinals. Still, Miami isn’t an impossible task. It lost at North Carolina 28-25 in the second game of the season. It’s really hard to tell what you’re going to get from the Hurricanes. They probably should’ve beaten Florida in the opener, but were uninspired in a win over Central Michigan. ESPN’s FPI gives Louisville only a 24 percent chance in the game. But catch Miami on one of those nights where it is going through the motions, and anything can happen.
AT N.C. STATE (11/16, +1): In the Sagarin ratings, this game is basically a pick ‘em. The Wolfpack is (are?) reeling, after a 31-13 loss at Florida State. N.C. State has a struggling secondary, if Louisville can find a quarterback to take advantage of it, and speaking of quarterback, the Wolfpack doesn’t have much to write home about in that department either. This game is very much in play for the Cardinals, and could be a game they are expected to win, even on the road, depending on how things go for both teams in the coming weeks. ESPN’s FPI at the moment puts Louisville’s chances at 45.8 percent.
SYRACUSE (11/23, Pick ‘em): Technically, the Sagarin predictor favors Louisville by 0.39 of a point, but if the margin is less than half a point, I’ve rounded down. This is another game in which Louisville figured to be a heavy underdog at the beginning of the season, but because of Louisville’s early play, and Syracuse faltering, now appears to be in play for the Cardinals. Much depends on the momentum each team brings in, which, at this point, is nearly impossible to predict. ESPN’s FPI gives Louisville a significant chance to win this game – 64.4 percent.
AT KENTUCKY (11/30, +7.5): Sagarin still has Kentucky a touchdown favorite in this game, but as WDRB’s Rick Bozich reported on Monday, Las Vegas isn’t so sure about that. The line was 14 ½ before the season started, and now stands at 3. In a rivalry game, you never know. But the outlooks of these two teams have undergone some changes since the start of the season, and could yet go through some twists and turns before the game arrives. Despite its struggles, Kentucky should still be a bowl team by the time this game rolls around. If Louisville could beat Boston College, N.C. State and Syracuse, it could be playing for a bowl in this game. ESPN’s FPI puts Louisville’s chance of winning this game at just 31.9 percent.
BOTTOM LINE: Louisville is by no means out of all bowl discussion. The loss at Florida State hurt, but there’s still a road to what would be a coach-of-the-year type postseason accomplishment for the Cardinals. The road is this: Beat Boston College. Win the two games that ESPN’s FPI gives you the best chance to win: at N.C. State and at home against Syracuse. Then pull off an upset either of Virginia at home or Kentucky on the road.
I wouldn’t call it anywhere likely at this point. But there is a road, however rocky.
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