LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- Watching the early wagering on the Kentucky Derby is a lot like watching the first election returns roll in — you shouldn't put too much stock in it.

Still, after a full day of betting on TwinSpires.com and on-track sources, the movement in the odds provides an intriguing look at how the public is sizing up the field. To be sure, the early bets are likely more recreational bettors and are sure to show some local bias.

So don't get excited. But the updates are fun to watch. And here's what they told us as of this writing, mid-Wednesday afternoon, since the Morning Line was set last Saturday night.

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Biggest Movers Up

American Promise, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, dropped from 30-1 to 12-1 — a significant vote of confidence in the Hall of Fame trainer, as well as the son of Triple Crown winner Justify.
Render Judgment was also tabbed at 30-1 on the morning line but, likewise, had fallen to 12-1 as of Wednesday's wagering update, no doubt a nod to local trainer Kenny McPeek's popularity and his sweeping of the Derby and Oaks a year ago.
Final Gambit improved from 30-1 to 17-1, another sizable shift for a lightly regarded Brad Cox trainee.

Biggest Drifters

Sovereignty, a 5-1 second choice on the morning line, had drifted to 11-1, a notable cool-off for the backside's biggest buzz horse. That's the strangest move in the line. Do not expect to have those odds at post time for the impressive Into Mischief colt.
Neoequos ballooned from 30-1 to 58-1, while Owen Almighty and Chunk of Gold each surged past the 40-1 mark.

Favorites Holding Steady

Journalism, the morning-line favorite at 3-1, saw a modest drift to 4-1. Still the top choice.
Sandman nudged slightly from 6-1 to 5-1, tightening his grip as the second betting choice.

Kentucky Derby odds updated at 2:30 p.m. Wednesday, April 30, from TwinSpires.com.
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Trackside Buzz

Rain remains a storyline. Thunderstorms are forecast for Wednesday through Friday, which could affect track conditions and potentially alter training and strategy. Saturday's forecast remains in flux. Trainers are watching the skies as closely as the tote board.

The latest morning forecast from WDRB's Jude Redfield on WDRB News in the Morning: "The word's getting out that the rain potential is a little bit higher on Saturday," Redfield said. "Saturday's rain potential looks to be about 50 to 60 percent. That still doesn't translate to an all-day rainout, but the overall system has slowed down to where that rain potential is going to linger. ... It looks like high temperatures for your Derby parties will be in the sixties on Saturday."

Citizen Bull (Post 1, 17-1): Worked sharply earlier in the week and had a routine gallop Wednesday. Bob Baffert said the No. 1 post means "We're going to have to use him early. We're going to tell him to get out of there like he just robbed a bank."

Render Judgment (Post 15, 12-1): A relatively quiet work but steady betting interest. Robby Albarado was aboard for the gallop Wednesday.

American Promise (Post 5, 11-1): Galloped a mile and three-eighths under Tayja Smith. The Lukas factor may be driving betting steam, but the colt's progression on the track has looked solid.

Sovereignty (Post 18, 11-1): Had a quiet, composed gallop under Javier Cardona. Trainer Bill Mott said everything is going smoothly. "No complaints yet," Mott said.

Burnham Square (Post 9, 22-1): The Blue Grass winner with a question mark if it's an off-track Saturday, but he's not the only one. For now, exercise rider Mark Cutler says he's handling the Churchill surface just fine. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. added, "Good horses can overcome a lot."

Baeza (AE, 50-1): Still waiting. The also-eligible who is a half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage galloped steadily and schooled in the paddock. Trainer John Shirreffs said, "We're still hoping for a gift from the gods." If there's a scratch by 9 a.m. Friday, he's in. Otherwise, he's Preakness-bound.

Journalism (Post 8, 4-1): The favorite turned in another smooth gallop under Marc Witkowski. “Sweet – that's the word for him,” said the exercise rider. Trainer Michael McCarthy continues to sound quietly confident.

Coal Battle (Post 16, 31-1): Had a walk day Wednesday but is 2-for-2 on off tracks, both at Fair Grounds in Louisiana. But exercise rider and assistant trainer Bethany Taylor thinks that game will travel. “Mud is mud,” she said. “The only difference is that in Louisiana there might be crawfish on the track.”

Grande (Post 10, 17-1): Galloped well with trainer Todd Pletcher looking on. John Velazquez gets the call Saturday. Their 2017 win with Always Dreaming is still fresh in minds.

Admire Daytona (Post 6, 40-1) and Luxor Café (Post 7, 14-1): The Japanese pair had walk days planned after working on Tuesday. Both also were scheduled to school in the Churchill Downs' Champions Day paddock.

Sandman (Post 17, 5-1): Galloped a mile and a half under Froylan Garcia. The son of Tapit has never raced on an off track. He is, however, building a social media fan base thanks to influencer Griffin Johnson, who has been sharing stories about Sandman with his 9.5 million followers on TikTok. Read Rick Bozich's column about him here.

Rodriguez (Post 4, 9-1): Galloped under Humberto Gomez during the special Derby/Oaks training window. Breaking just three-spots over from his rail-bound stablemate should be no problem for the Authentic colt, according to Baffert, who said, “The four isn't so bad. He'll be OK coming out of there.”

East Avenue (Post 12, 20-1), Final Gambit (Post 3, 17-1), Owen Almighty (Post 20, 44-1) and the Steve Asmussen-trained duo of Publisher (Post 13, 32-1) and Tiztastic (Post 14, 20-1) turned in routine gallops.