Picking Kentucky Derby 151 winner, Part II — with Casey Klein | Derby News

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- When Casey Klein was 7 or 8 years old, his father, Richard, drove him to Churchill Downs to watch one of the family's horses run in a race late on the card.

Richard gave Casey a copy of The Daily Racing Form. He asked him to pick the winning horse in the first, second and third races.

Father and son bet the daily double as well as the pick three.

"I hit the daily double as well as the pick three for like $330, and it was all downhill from there," Casey Klein, now 29, said with a laugh.

Kentucky Derby 151 | Derby Prep Races | Derby Festival Events

That's what brought me to Casey Klein this week. That is precisely the kind of precocious handicapper I have been searching for to help me end my Kentucky Derby losing streak — picking one winner (Orb, 2013) since 1989.

Throughout the week, I've been chasing to help me beat the Derby. Klein is today's Derby guest handicapper.

Until jockey Brian Hernandez rolled Mystik Dan down the rail in Derby 150 last year, Klein looked as if he had Sierra Leone, Forever Young and Catching Freedom nailed at first, second and third, instead of second, third and fourth.

He took a stand against Derby favorite Fierceness and he was right. That colt finished 17th.

Like any serious horseplayer, Klein returns to Derby 151 determined to win big. He works as an assistant to David Ingordo, one of racing's elite bloodstock agents.

Ingordo recommended the purchases of Zenyatta, Flightline, Uncle Mo, Arabian Night and other elite runners. Ingordo was involved in the purchase of Sandman, the colt who won the Arkansas Derby and might be second choice to Journalism Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Casey Klein works with bloodstock agent David Ingordo. He nailed his first daily double and pick 3 at Churchill Downs when he was 7 or 8 years old. He likes Sovereignity to win Kentucky Derby 151.
Rick Bozich

Klein said he begins handicapping the Derby after the Breeders' Cup every fall. He looks at pedigree. He prefers the Ragozin Sheets over Andy Beyer's speed figures, because the sheets incorporate more factors, including wind speed and trip information, into the data.

But Klein's favorite tool is to watch video replays of every race run by every Derby contender — from their maiden trips to the starting gate to their final Kentucky Derby preps. He needs to see how they deal with adversity, how they handle larger fields, how wisely they have been ridden and whether they have that powerful closing move over the final three or four furlongs that most Derby winners have.

"In the beginning, I think I was doing it wrong, doing it primarily on paper," Klein said. "I don't think that was necessarily the best route for me.

"I needed to watch the horses. I mean, there are thousands of ways to handicap this race, but that's what works best for me."

What about 2025? How did you begin to handicap this one?

"Working for David, my role is almost like a scout, a baseball scout," Klein said. "We're out there looking for horses for him to buy, for his clients to buy, at the yearling sales.

"Naturally, with that, we see a lot of these horses at the sales. When they show up and they win, I say 'Oh, I remember that horse at the sale.'"

That happened last Oct. 27 in the Grade III Street Sense Stakes for 2-year-olds at Churchill Downs. Ingordo was involved in the purchase of Sandman, who finished third in that race. The winner that day was Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott. Ninth and last after three quarters of a mile, Sovereignty dominated the final 3/16th of a mile, advancing from 5 1/4 lengths behind to 5 lengths in front while moving from last to first.

"Sovereignty was dead last going into the first turn, pretty much almost dead last coming out of the second turn and closed that day on a really speed-biased race track," Klein said.

"From that point, I think Sovereignty was 40-1 in the Derby Futures pool. I told a client of mine 'This is the Derby pick.'

"I felt like he could make up ground so quick it's almost like (Olympic champion sprinter) Usain Bolt strides. His strides are so long, he's producing so much power and he's getting faster and faster. I kind of built (his picks) around that."

And what are Klein's Derby picks?

These are the five that he told me that he liked, in this order:

Sovereignty to win.
Burnham Square, winner of the Blue Grass Stakes
Luxor Cafe, a Japanese horse
Publisher, trained by Steve Asmussen
Journalism, the likely favorite

"I think Journalism is the best 3-year-old, but he has not faced a massive field," Klein said. "In a race like this, it comes down to post position and your positioning going around the race track.

"If you don't have the trip, I fear you're almost out of the race going into the first turn. It's tough to make up ground.

"I fear that him not running a perfect trip going into the first turn might hurt him, because he's never seen that before ...

"What I'm probably going to (bet) is a daily double with a few horses in the race before (the Derby) and then single Sovereignty. And I'll do the opposite, one horse in the race before with five or so in the Derby.

"I'll probably do the Oaks/Derby double because there are a few horses I like in the Oaks at a price because I don't think it's a walk in the park for Good Cheer (the 6-5 morning line Oaks favorite).

"If I could hit back-to-back 15-1 or 30-1 shots in those two races, I could walk away with a pretty good score this weekend."