BOZICH | Picking the Derby winner with Travis Stone, Dale Romans, Mark Casse, Jack Wolf | Sports

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) -- It's the Kentucky Derby. You can bet your favorite number, favorite color or favorite jockey. You can pull a name out of a hat.

If you're a sports writer, odds are you're going to play an extra $2 on Journalism or Publisher. If you don't, and one of those two colts wins Derby 151 on Saturday at Churchill Downs, you'll howl at the moon.

But this week, I'm trying to focus on people who are serious in their quest to beat the race. People who are not closing their eyes and playing hunches. People who know the game.

Kentucky Derby 151 | Derby Prep Races | Derby Festival Events

On Monday, I began with Derby handicapping from a racing insider who has been watching the horses train in Louisville for several weeks.

The second installment in picking the Derby winner is the result of an event I attended at the Pendennis Club in downtown Louisville.

Churchill Downs track announcer Travis Stone; Jack Wolf, the managing partner of Starlight Racing; trainer Mark Casse and trainer Dale Romans spoke to several hundred Derby fans, sharing their thoughts on the race and how they plan to bet.

Remember this:

*Wolf and Starlight have ownership stakes in Citizen Bull and Rodriguez, talented colts that Bob Baffert has trained into the race.

"I'm betting the Baffert exacta," Wolf said.

*Casse will saddle LaCara, the second choice in the Kentucky Oaks Friday and Sandman, likely the third pick in the Derby. He, of course, will bet the LaCara/Sandman, Oaks/Derby double.

But, like Stone and Romans, they shared their opinions on how they expected the race to unfold.

DALE ROMANS: "I would like to say that this group as a whole is training better than any I've seen in many, many years. Usually you can pick two or three out that look like they've been put through the wringer. You can throw them out because you know they're not going to run well … but this group, from top to bottom, is a stellar group or horses …

"Look at how the horse is acting (in the post parade), if they're getting hot and sweaty and acting up. Because some of them (the crowd) will frazzle.

"The other thing is I like horses who have run against a lot of other horses and have been put through the mill. That makes me question this year the favorite, Journalism, a little bit.

"But the three on paper that I actually think can win the race if I was betting would be Journalism, Sandman and Sovereignty.

"Then in the second tier I've have East Avenue, Rodriguez and Burnham Square."

TRAVIS STONE: "The number to keep in mind is the half-mile time. If you see 45 (seconds), anything in the 45s, you can almost guarantee the winner of the race is going to be a closer.

"So if you see 45 or a low 46, start looking for closers … one of those closers is Journalism. He has zero wasted energy in any of his moves. Just a beautiful animal …

"But if the pace is fast, the closers in this race are legitimate. Sandman, Sovereignty and Burnham Square are three legitimate closers."

MARK CASSE: "If they go 45 (seconds for the first half mile), I can tell you one guy who is going to be smiling (him) …

"I took have been very impressed with Journalism. I think the problem with Journalism, his Achilles' heel, is he's been running in small fields (5 horse fields in his last three starts). He's going to have to negotiate a lot of trouble that he's never had before."

JACK WOLF: "I don't think I've ever asked or told Bob Baffert how to train. If I did, he wouldn't listen to me anyway … It seems like Rodriguez needs the lead, whereas the one-horse (Citizen Bull) might get by with not (going to the front). But I have no clue what Bob's instructions are going to be to the riders."

STONE: "I don't bet the Derby personally but if I were to bet the Derby, I don't just want to bet a horse to win. I want to win a lot of money. So I'm going to look at a wager like a superfecta (picking the first four in order) …

"… the Derby superfecta has paid multiple five figures over the last 10 to 15 years. So it's a great wager to really score.

"I would key a horse like Journalism to hit one of those four slots and then I'd play a bunch of horses with him … so you can take horses like Burnham Square, Sovereignty, Publisher, Tiztastic and even Chunk of Gold. If it comes in it's almost always going to pay well.

"I would put Journalism in my exactas (one-two) at all times. I would use Burnham Square, Sandman and Sovereignty in those exacta boxes."

CASSE: "Mine's pretty simple — Oaks/Derby, LaCara/Sandman, we're fine …

"... but seriously, if I could take one horse and extract it from the field it would be Journalism. Sovereignty looks great and loves Churchill Downs. Bill Mott is as good a horseman as I've ever been around.

"I like the way American Promise (trained by D. Wayne Lukas has been moving around. He looks well."

WOLF: "I don't know why you people want to listen to my picks, but I'm going to have to bet the Baffert exacta for sure. But the other horses that most people are mentioning are Journalism, Burnham Square and Sovereignty. You've got to use those horses in some of the exotic (wagers)."

ROMANS: "If you're at the track make sure you check out the horses, see how they look, see how they act on the walk over. Make sure none of them are losing it or getting uptight on the walk over. I think that's very important going a mile-and-a-quarter."