Louisville vs SMU football

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) — This looks like the tastiest weekend of the college football season.

I started to say that it also presents the most difficult lineup of games to pick but the games are difficult to pick against the spread every weekend. This is the first time Eric Crawford and I have both had more winners than losers this deep into the season since we started picking games several years ago.

(No jinx, please.)

But what makes this card appear more difficult is the line for all five games that we’re forecasting is less than a touchdown.

And … who would have expected a Kirby Smart-coached Georgia team getting 5 points. Or Indiana being favored by nearly a touchdown against Nebraska. Or …. well, just read on to this weeks' picks.

Wagering Recap

Crawford went 4-1 last week (losing only with Ohio State) to improve to 20-15 for the season. He also won $175 to bump his bankroll to an impressive $1,525, after starting with an imaginary $1,000.

Bozich slipped to 2-3, missing Louisville, Kentucky and Ohio State. I'm 21-14 on the season. I lost $5, dropping my bankroll to $1,225.

This week’s games:

1.  Miami (-5) at Louisville, Saturday, Noon.

Crawford: Miami hasn’t been great in its past two games, but I worry about Louisville’s ability to protect quarterback Tyler Shough. (Miami $25)

Bozich: As I wrote earlier this week, Jeff Brohm dropped at least three October Surprise wins on his resume at Purdue. Miami’s defense has been gouged for 764 yards and 72 points in the Hurricanes last two wins. Points will be available if Louisville can limit penalties and turnovers. Give me Louisville and the points at what should be a raucous L&N Cardinal Stadium for $50.

2. Kentucky (-2) at Florida, Saturday, 7:45 p.m.

Crawford: Kentucky has generally been a good bounce-back team under Mark Stoops, and is more talented than Florida. The problem is that Kentucky shouldn’t have to bounce back as much as it has. (Kentucky $50)

Bozich: Neither team is happy about the direction of its season — and the loser will have to face the reality that it might not become bowl eligible. Heck, Florida coach Billy Napier might lose his job with a defeat. The Wildcats have the worst scoring offense in the Southeastern Conference so I’ll take the home team getting points for $30.

3. Nebraska (+6.5) at Indiana, Saturday, Noon.

Crawford: This is pretty steep on points, but I am counting on emotion and adrenaline to keep the ball rolling at home for Indiana. That generally doesn’t work as well as a superior defensive line, though, so I won’t bet the farm. (Indiana $25)

Bozich: Northwestern, UCLA and Maryland, the three Big Ten teams the Hoosiers have beaten, rank 13th or lower in total defense in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers have the third-best run defense and eighth-best pass defense with 7 interceptions. Give me the Huskers for $25, in part because Indiana and 7-0 have not been written in the same sentence for 57 years, folks.

4. Alabama (-3) at Tennessee, Saturday, 3:30 p.m.

Crawford: Tennessee has played down the past couple of games and Alabama is coming off an all-time embarrassment at Vanderbilt as well as home field struggle against South Carolina. Tennessee cannot let Vandy one-up it, and Neyland is a tough place to play. (Tennessee $25)

Bozich: Until two weeks ago both teams looked like locks for the College Football Playoff. Then Alabama burped at Vanderbilt and stumbled past South Carolina. Tennessee’s offense disappeared as the Vols lost at Arkansas and needed overtime to beat Florida. This is my most uncomfortable pick of the five but I’ll give the points and take the home team for $20.

5. Georgia (+5) at Texas, Saturday, 7:30 p.m.

Crawford: The Longhorns are riding high after beating rival Oklahoma, but I feel like Georgia may want to remind people it is still around. (Georgia $25)

Bozich: I had to double check that Kirby Smart’s team was getting 5 points for this week’s Game of the Year in Austin. It’s true. And Jeff Sagarin’s collection of computer power numbers say the Longhorns should be favored by more. ESPN puts the Texas win probability at 76.2%. Hook ‘em for $50.

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